Somalia’s President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, gathered with Germany’s Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, in Berlin from November 5-6, 2024. The photo credits: Hannes P. Albert / picture alliance.
Recently, Germany and Somalia unveiled a new agreement, sparking varied reactions and opinions. Historically, similar attempts to repatriate migrants have often faced challenges and shown limited success, as noted by several experts.
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On November 6, after their meeting in Berlin, Scholz and Mohamud declared their intention to return more individuals to Somalia who do not have the legal right to stay in Germany.
However, this announcement has stirred up inquiries about the two leaders’ differing interpretations: Would Somalis face forced expulsion?
At a joint press conference, Scholz remarked, “Although only a few Somalis lack permission to remain here, repatriation laws apply to them, naturally.”
Yet, a statement from Mohamud seemed to differ. It suggested their pact focused on voluntary returns, not forced deportations.
As posted by Somali government spokesperson, Farhan Jimale, on the X platform, the statement reads: “Forced repatriation isn’t necessary; for those without asylum rights who wish to return voluntarily, our doors remain open.”
Social media reactions have been spirited. Some users pointed out a disparity between how Germany reported the deal and Mohamud’s assertions, while others accused him of dishonesty and neglecting the internal displacement issues within Somalia.
Questions cropped up, such as, “What about the $10 million reportedly involved in this dubious agreement?”
These comments underscore the challenges faced by less affluent African states when negotiating repatriation accords with EU nations, spotlighting often lopsided power dynamics in such deals.
Repatriation Negotiations as Leverage
A pattern is evolving wherein Europe leans on African nations to curb migrant exits and accept their returning citizens, in return for continued financial aid. Somalia, on its path to recovery from turmoil, leans significantly on both the EU and Germany for aid and development assistance. For President Mohamud, negotiating repatriations is one of his notable bargaining tools, explained Judith Altrogge, a researcher with Germany’s Osnabrück University.
Yet, for leaders like Mohamud, the political consequences at home loom large if these migration deals fall short for their people.
Altrogge expressed skepticism, stating, “Somalia presently lacks the means to adequately care for returnees.” She added, “The country is already grappling with vast social and economic challenges without the added pressure of deportees.”
Reflecting on Gambia’s experience with return migration, Altrogge observed that their cooperation with the EU, initiated post-dictator Yahya Jammeh’s removal in 2017, backfired when leaders were lambasted for inadequately supporting deportees. “For many, it seemed the government was more aligned with the interests of foreign states rather than its citizens.”
The protests in Gambia became so intense that the government ultimately suspended further EU deportations, albeit briefly. Like Somalia, Gambia’s top development ally is the EU.
No Surge in Deportations
Looking at bilateral migration agreements, the German-Somali accord mirrors those made with Kenya, Morocco, and Georgia. In each instance, potential returnee numbers have been modest.
Nations usually engage in such deals hoping for other gains. For instance, Kenya might prioritize legal migration channels, while Morocco seeks more diplomatic leverage along with aid.
The German regime stresses the importance of forming agreements with origin countries to enhance deportations. However, as per Altrogge, most partnerships, except with Gambia, haven’t resulted in more returnees.
Being non-binding, the Somalia agreement should be perceived as an initial step towards intensified negotiations—not solely between Somalia and Germany but also with Somali civil society. After years of strife, fostering trust presents another layer of complexity.
Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring
