Egypt’s Military Maneuvers Ignite Long-Standing Rivalries in Somalia and the Horn of Africa

Egypt’s military footprint in Somalia has surged dramatically in recent weeks. Between August 27 and 29, 1,000 Egyptian soldiers were deployed in Mogadishu. Furthermore, Egyptian authorities have unveiled intentions to transfer an array of armaments, including anti-tank missiles, rocket launchers, and drones—actions that prompt fears of escalating hostilities. Notably, Egyptian and Somali military forces are gearing up for joint exercises scheduled for September, effectively solidifying their defense partnership.

Officials in Cairo frame these developments as a display of strength aimed at safeguarding Somalia. Conversely, Ethiopian leaders interpret them as a naked threat to regional stability. As the Somali federal government enlists this alliance as leverage, it pressures Ethiopia to dismantle its port arrangement with Somaliland. This deal grants Ethiopia access to critical ports, offering it a valuable outlet to the Red Sea. In response, Mogadishu has pronounced the agreement a violation of its sovereignty, claiming it will expel Ethiopian troops from Somali territory unless the deal is rescinded.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed digests the situation differently, standing resolute on Ethiopia’s right to access the Red Sea, branding it an “existential issue.” Inside Somalia, factions in Jubbaland and South West states, where Ethiopian forces reside, have voiced support for Ethiopian military presence. These local groups operate beyond the Somali federal government’s purview, heightening the risk of internal strife and the specter of proxy warfare.

Tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt are far from novel. The nations have historically clashed over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Ethiopia is constructing along the Blue Nile. As Egypt relies on the Nile for roughly 90% of its freshwater, there is palpable anxiety that the dam could drastically curtail its water supply. Ethiopia, on the other hand, perceives the dam as crucial for achieving energy autonomy and fostering national progress.

Recently, Egypt approached the United Nations, urging immediate intervention to halt Ethiopia’s dam construction. Cairo consistently portrays the GERD as an existential threat, while Ethiopia underscores its entitlement to harness the Nile’s resources for advancement. This protracted disagreement has only intensified the current regional tensions.

The Horn of Africa has served as a long-standing theatre for geopolitical rivalries, and the shifting dynamics between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Egypt have further inflamed an already volatile situation. With Egypt’s influence in Sudan waning, due to an ongoing civil conflict, Cairo has pivoted towards Somalia as a pivotal ally. This partnership aims to bolster Egypt’s influence in the region, granting it greater leverage over Ethiopia, especially concerning the contentious GERD issue.