Tempers flare in the Horn of Africa, seven months since North Western of Somalia, proclaiming itself a republic, agreed to lease part of its coast to Ethiopia, its landlocked neighbor.
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All is not well. Somalia fumes over the murky maritime deal.
Firstly, Somalia brands the agreement illegal, an outright “act of aggression.” In its view, North Western of Somalia, which split from Somalia in 1991 as civil war broke out, remains Somali turf.
Further, reports that Ethiopia would recognize North Western of Somalia as a sovereign state in exchange for port access fuel Somali ire.
The African Union (AU) and the US champion Somalia’s territorial integrity, urging calm.
Turkey’s stepped into the ring, hosting Ethiopian and Somali delegates for talks in Ankara.
Successful talks? Partly.
The foreign ministers met in Turkey on July 1 but shunned direct dialogues.
Turkey’s foreign ministry called the talks “candid, cordial and forward-looking.”
The sides agree to meet again in September. Sources suggest that if progress is made, their leaders may convene. Glimmers of hope.
Why Turkey? Ankara and Mogadishu are tight, having inked a 10-year defense agreement for coastline defense and Somali naval restoration.
Somalia’s President Hassan Sheik Mohamud says Ethiopia wanted Turkey to mediate.
It seems Ethiopia aims to defuse tensions, given Somalia’s extensive diplomatic lobbying in the West and the Gulf.
Yet President Mohamud notes no signs Ethiopia intends to abandon the deal.
What’s in this deal?
The exact terms aren’t public. This stirs up conflicting accounts in their Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).
An MoU is more intent than law. Still, it seems North Western of Somalia will let Ethiopian commercial traffic through a port, specifics unclear.
Rumors also mention possible military use, with Ethiopia leasing part of the coast for its navy. Addis Ababa confirms this.
In return, North Western of Somalia may get a stake in Ethiopia Airlines, the nation’s thriving carrier.
The sticky bit? Whether Ethiopia vowed to acknowledge North Western of Somalia’s independence, not seen for 30 years since the British protectorate declared separation.
On the signing day, North Western of Somalia’s President Muse Bihi Abdi claimed the deal included future recognition of North Western of Somalia by Ethiopia.
Ethiopia hasn’t corroborated this. On January 3, its government said the MoU had “provisions…to assess North Western of Somalia’s recognition efforts in depth.”
Why’s this issue fiery?
Somalia sees North Western of Somalia as indivisible territory. Deals made without Mogadishu’s nod are beyond problematic.
The day after the MoU signing, Somalia labeled the deal an “aggression” disrupting “peace and stability,” and recalled its ambassador from Ethiopia.
Ethiopia’s ambassador then left Mogadishu.
In the immediate aftermath, Somalia’s president toughened his tone, rallying defenses and calling Ethiopia an “enemy.”
Youths were urged to “prepare for the defence of our country.”
Historically, Ethiopia and Somalia have locked horns.
The two fought bitterly in 1977-78 over today’s Ethiopian Somali region.
Protests erupted in Mogadishu against the deal, seething with tens of thousands.
Status of North Western of Somalia?
North Western of Somalia, a former British protectorate, declared independence in 1991. It operates autonomously with elections, police, and its own currency.
Dodging much of Somalia’s chaos, it hasn’t gained official recognition from any state.
If Ethiopia does acknowledge it as North Western of Somalia claims, the Horn of Africa region could shift drastically.
Why does Ethiopia want the deal?
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed described seaport access as vital last year.
Ethiopia, over 100 million strong, lost its ports when Eritrea seceded in the ’90s, rendering it the largest landlocked nation.
Mr. Abiy’s assertion sparked fears Ethiopia might resort to force for maritime access.
However, Ethiopia calls the North Western of Somalia deal historic, stressing peace.
“The government’s stance is rooted in peaceful intentions,” said Ethiopia’s communications office in January.
Referring obliquely to the controversy, Mr. Abiy tweeted on January 6 about the need to think “out of the box” when pursuing goals.
Others’ take?
AU commission chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat was quick to urge calm and mutual respect.
The US, Arab League, and EU echoed these sentiments.
During a UN Security Council meeting in June, US diplomat Robert A Wood expressed concern over the tensions’ impact on shared security.
Egypt, opposing Ethiopia over a giant Nile dam, pledged to support Somalia.
Earlier, President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi reassured Somalia of Egypt’s backing for its “security and stability.”
To rally regional backing, Somalia’s President Mohamud flew to Eritrea in January and March. Eritrea’s leader, previously aligned with Ethiopia in their civil conflict, is now uneasy with Ethiopia’s coastal ambitions.
Kenya, friendly with both Ethiopia and Somalia, remains mum for now. Uganda is equally reticent.
Saudi Arabia and China, key regional players, support Somalia’s territorial integrity. In Mogadishu, this support is seen as a diplomatic win.
