The failure, on Tuesday, April 6, of a three-day conversation in Kinshasa about the Ethiopian mega-hydroelectric dam built on a tributary of the Nile, weighs on the climate in the region. As the second phase of tank filling approaches, the positions seem further apart than ever.
Sudanese negotiators left Kinshasa very angry. Nothing, according to them, could bend the Ethiopian delegates: their refusal of “mediators” or “facilitators” outside the African Union was total to the end. No proposal was accepted: neither the involvement of the UN, the United States nor the European Union, nor the possibility for the AU to engage a third party if necessary.
The Ethiopian government representatives remained in line: the AU, headquartered in Addis Ababa, must remain the only third party in the talks, in the name of the principle of “African solutions to African problems”.
But the Sudanese suspect above all the Ethiopians that they have wasted time and that they are just trying to force their way through. “There is no logical reason to justify Ethiopia’s rejection of the mediation principle,” said Sudanese Irrigation Minister Yasser Abbas, back in Khartoum. Maybe she has other intentions, with the sole goal of completing the second filling without a deal. “
Because it is really the urgency that the negotiators are facing today: The rainy season in Ethiopia begins in June and the government announced that it would take the opportunity to capture the 13.5 billion cubic meters of water. Water needed for the dam’s reservoir, no matter what and despite all threats.
“No one can take a drop of water from Egypt”
Yassir Abbas claimed that this filling was “a real threat that can not be accepted”. “Ethiopian inadequacy would prompt Sudan to explore all possible options to protect its security and its citizens,” he concluded. Sudan is now considering taking the matter to the UN Security Council.
However, some are afraid that this political dispute could escalate into armed conflict. As Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisia warned: “No one can take a drop of water from Egypt. It is a red line, he told the press on Wednesday, April 7, after the failure of the Kinshasa talks. “I’ve never talked like that before,” he added. I’m not threatening anyone. I’m very patient. “
But in Addis Ababa, it is repeated that the Renaissance Grand Dam is an existential project for Ethiopia. It must provide Ethiopians and the region with the corresponding electricity production of six nuclear power plants and act as a regulator of river water. Suggests an Ethiopian journalist.
However, the Congolese Presidency has not given up on finding a formula to resume dialogue. But Kinshasa’s failure introduced a new deal into the equation: if the confrontation with Egypt is old, Sudan’s anger may not be good news for Addis Ababa. Already toasted by the clashes of his army with militia and the Ethiopian army in the disputed triangle of El-Fashqa, by the influx of Tigrayan refugees fleeing the massacres, by the growing role of Eritrea in the region’s affairs, Khartoum has really hardened its position.
“Sudan was Ethiopia’s only protection that kept its enemy Egypt away,” explains analyst Rachid Abdi. But this buffer has now disappeared. If I were an Ethiopian strategist, he concludes, I would be very worried about this geopolitical change. ”
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