Three months after the start, where is the transition in Chad? As soon as Idriss Déby’s death was announced on April 20, the military set up the Transitional Military Council, which would lead this 18-month transition. The Transitional National Council is still expected, as is the inclusive dialogue, which raises questions about how the deadline should be met.
The transition began on Monday, April 19 Idriss Deby’s remains was returned to Ndjamena but has not yet been announced re-elected to the presidency. The day is busy at the presidential palace: Mahamat Idriss Déby is placed at the head of a military council with fifteen members, under still uncertain circumstances. Officially, the president of the National Assembly, Haroun Kabadi, has voluntarily refused to take on the fee that is being constituted. In mid-June, he officially became secretary general of the MPS, the party of the former president.
Mahamat Idriss Déby is not the most famous son of a “marshal”. Before him, Zakaria was in their father’s footsteps for a time, before he was appointed ambassador to the Gulf, to “keep him away,” critics say. His little brother Abdelkerim, younger from the prestigious military academy in West Point, polyglot with a nice physique, had joined the presidential cabinet and aroused the curiosity of observers. But it is he, Mahamat known as “Kaka”, the director general of DGSSIE, the presidential guard, general of the army corps, who receives the trust of the Chadian military and security apparatus, to ensure this.
The repealed constitution
On the morning of the 20th, the constitution is repealed, the Transitional Military Council (CMT) is established. The next day a charter is published. In addition to the CMT, a CNT, the National Transitional Council, is provided with 93 members “from all walks of life”, who are responsible for legislative power and for examining the draft new constitution. The charter also prescribes a transitional government and sets a period of 18 months for the adoption of a constitution and the organization of elections. The period can be renewed once in case of blockage. As soon as the charter was announced, dubious opponents and civil society doubted the sincerity of the military.
On April 27, Mahamat Idriss Déby addresses his countrymen for the first time, most of whom discover the sound of his voice. In dubious French, he assures us that “the members of the CMT are soldiers who have no other ambition than to serve their country loyally and with honor”. After a morning marked by demonstrations, the repression of which required a dozen victims, he promises a “government for national reconciliation” and an inclusive national dialogue that “will not escape any topic of national interest”. He reaffirms the goal of “organizing democratic, free and open elections as soon as possible” before concluding with a call for “holy union”.
As prime minister, his choice fell on deaf ears Albert Pahimi Padacké. A man who served his father long before he opposed it and ran in the last presidential election. His government, formed on May 2, opens outside the previous majority, including in particular the opponent Mahamat Ahmat Alhabo in justice, the presidential candidate Lydie Beassemda and members of the UNDR in Saleh Kebzabo.
Where is the transition today?
As for the CNT, its creation is still pending. Opponents who have played the transition game hope to be able to influence the debates about the next constitution and the election organization. The same applies to the “inclusive national dialogue”. A decision of 2 July sets out the methods: the organizations concerned (parties, trade unions, civil society organizations, religious denominations, traditional chiefs, women’s organizations, the diaspora or people with disabilities) must currently meet with the Minister. by Acheikh Ibn Oumar Reconciliation and forward their candidates to about 70 seats on the Steering Committee, according to the distribution key set out in the decree.
But the development of this dialogue is not for everyone: Wakit Tama Coordination, formed during the presidential campaign and the initiator of the violently dispersed rallies on April 27, considers it “exclusive”. She also wonders about the government’s ability to implement it, while the decree stipulates that almost all appointments will be made “after consultation with the president of the Transitional Military Council”.
It’s a very, very bad start. Everyone who is currently in business is a continuity in reality.
What the Chadians think about the transition
Among the members of Wakit Tama, Succès Masra, leader of Transformers, a party just regulated by the authorities, believes that we “started again with the same people who were at the 2018 dialogue, the same who had validated the constitution, the same people want responsibility for the transition. The Chadians are well aware that the same causes have the same consequences. “
CMT must speed up and open the dialogue, believes Saleh Kebzabo, President of UNDR: “There are turning points that have not come, we are still waiting, but I do not think so. That we can wait longer. Some strong gestures must be taken quickly. In particular, the establishment of the CNT, although controversial, and in particular a timetable for dialogue ‘.
For most policies, the dialogue will only succeed if all stakeholders are involved. However, Jean-Bernard Padaré, spokesman for MPS, clarified: “Dialogue means saying what is wrong and how to pull Chad up. If it is to come to trial during the thirty years, I am very afraid that it will be a rat ”.
Doubts about meeting deadlines
Middle of June, vid Jeune Afrique, Mahamat Idriss Déby insured: “Our wish is not to go beyond (the 18 months), but there are two conditions for this deadline to be respected. The first is that we, the Chadians, can reach an agreement to move forward at the planned pace. The second is that our partners help us finance the dialogue and the election, because it is obvious that Chadian Treasury will not be able to bear such a cost alone. If we agree and if we get help, the 18 months are within our reach. Otherwise it will be very difficult “.
In the same interview, Mahamat Idriss Déby answered the second nagging question: whether he could be a candidate at the end of the transition. “CMT members will therefore not participate in the election […] it is a commitment made to the people, “he says, not without leaving a little doubt.” Having said that, I believe as a believer that we must leave to God the part that depends on him. God determines everything, fate as well as power ”.
It will be up to the future dialogue to decide on the issue of eligibility, but already high-ranking Chadian officials assure that it will be “virtually impossible” to meet the 18-month deadline given the tasks to be performed. They also refuse to make a clear commitment on the non-eligibility of CMT members.