The State of Somalia: Reflections on Leadership and Future Directions

The history of Somalia is not without its scars, bearing the weight of troubled times and painful misfortunes. It is a narrative marked by the early promise of one-person-one-vote elections, which spiraled into a military coup and years of dictatorship. The aftermath saw a violent civil war that dismantled the very fabric of the Somali state, leaving a legacy of instability and dependence on foreign aid and clan-based divisions. The toll on the Somali people has been profound, shaping their livelihoods, perceptions, and sense of identity.

But amidst this tumultuous history, a glimmer of hope persists. Many Somalis share an urgent desire for reconciliation—a vision of unification as citizens of a democratic state governed by the rule of law and a thriving free market economy. Imagine a future where the painful lessons of the past have paved the way for a stable and prosperous Somalia. Yet, is this dream feasible? While the establishment of a democratic state in the Horn of Africa presents formidable challenges, it remains the only viable path forward for Somalia.

Historically, efforts aimed at fostering reconciliation, peace, and state sovereignty have received backing from foreign powers in the form of political, economic, and security assistance. One must acknowledge, however, that not all foreign support has been beneficial. The results of these prolonged efforts have often been disheartening. Many Somali leaders, entrusted with spearheading the rejuvenation of their nation, have not demonstrated the wisdom, integrity, or competence necessary for democratic governance.

It would be remiss not to scrutinize the leadership of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who bears considerable responsibility for the state of affairs in Somalia. His dual elections to the presidency mark him as a unique figure in Somali history, yet this distinction comes with specific expectations. The lack of comparable opportunities for him to redeem failure—either domestically or internationally—leaves a gaping hole in the narrative of accountability. Though he presents himself as an educated individual with a rich background in civil society, his leadership has frequently contradicted the values he professes to uphold.

Regrettably, President Hassan’s tenure has been tainted by incompetence and a disturbing veneer of duplicity. Some observers, drawing parallels to Orwellian and Machiavellian traits, suggest he exemplifies what is often referred to as “toxic leadership.” This concept describes a pattern of behavior that discourages followers from pursuing the mission and vision of an organization, fostering an environment of demoralization and dysfunction. How do we reconcile our hopes for good governance with the realities of such leadership?

Defining characteristics of toxic leadership include a profound disregard for the well-being of citizens, exploitation of power, neglect of developmental responsibilities, and a troubling lack of accountability. The ambitious campaign to eradicate Al Shabab has faltered, largely hindered by the toxic governance environment surrounding President Hassan. As former Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Hon. Fawzia Yusuf Haji Adam poignantly noted in her article, “The Illusion of Sovereignty: Why Somalia Still Needs Foreign Troops Despite 20 Years of Military Training,” a significant obstacle remains in the way of true sovereignty and stability.

Over the past decade, Somalia has benefited from extensive international support, designed to lay the foundations for a democratic state. Yet as we approach the 2024 deadline set by the UN Security Council for achieving sovereign capability, the nation remains under Chapter VII—denoting a significant threat to international peace— and continues to lean heavily on the assistance of international allies. Where has this support led us?

Intriguingly, President Hassan’s administration has at times seemed more focused on personal sustenance than on the lifting of the nation. His defeat in the 2017 elections sparked widespread joy among the populace, reflecting a collective wariness of authoritarian rule. Ironically, he managed to mount a comeback, joining forces with opposition politicians to oust his predecessor, President Farmajo, who was perceived to be overreaching in his power. Strengthened by this coalition, one might have expected a renewed commitment to democratic ideals upon Hassan’s reelection in May 2022. Unfortunately, the reality fell short of these optimistic expectations.

Instead of championing democratic governance, President Hassan increasingly gravitated toward the consolidation of power, employing a five-pronged strategy that undermined the very principles he once espoused. By appointing a Prime Minister and Council of Ministers loyal to him and diminishing the roles of regional states, President Hassan has strained the already fragile fabric of Somali governance. He has taken steps that violate both moral and legal standards, raising critical questions. What does it mean for Somalia when its leadership disregards its own Constitution?

Furthermore, he has manipulated parliamentary processes, turning the legislature into an ineffective rubber stamp rather than a space for meaningful debate and oversight. The old adage rings true: power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Is there hope for redeeming this system before it completely collapses?

As President Hassan’s term unfolds, he has often chosen personal gain over national interests. His travel abroad has raised eyebrows and concerns regarding accountability, overshadowing any purported accomplishments by excessive spending and leading to mismanagement of state resources. Though Somalia has made strides, such as gaining non-permanent status on the UN Security Council and amending parts of the Constitution, these achievements do not equate to substantive progress in tackling urgent issues of statehood or reducing foreign dependency.

The future appears daunting. Could Somalia plunge into chaos, driven by political violence? Alternatively, might an intervention from the international community help avert disaster and foster a sustainable political roadmap by 2025? The power to shape this outcome lies not only in the hands of politicians but also in Somali intellectuals, business leaders, and community figures. They must unite to address the barriers to completing the provisional constitution and establish a credible electoral process for 2026, ensuring a government grounded in accountability and rule of law.

The road ahead remains fraught with challenges. Yet, if Rashid Khalifa’s words resonate, “Better to light a candle than to curse the darkness,” perhaps there is still a flicker of hope for a future Somalia—one rooted in democracy and led by visionary individuals committed to the greater good of their nation.

Edited By Ali Musa

Axadle Times International–Monitoring.