Somalia’s Strategic Realignments: Stability or New Cold War in the Horn?
Leaders of the Red SEE Alliance: Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki.
From the bustling markets of Mogadishu to diplomatic hallways in Cairo and Addis Ababa—Somalia’s evolving security alignments are more than just regional posturing. According to a compelling new study, these partnerships are inadvertently fueling instability, increasing proxy tensions, and complicating ongoing peace initiatives across the Horn of Africa.
Published by the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs on Tuesday, the detailed analysis by respected academics Dr. Mercy Fekadu Mulugeta and analyst Leulseged Girma provides a nuanced look at how unconventional security deals around ports, state recognition, and military deployments are reshaping regional geopolitics. Far from isolated incidents, the authors argue, Somalia’s diplomatic and security actions bear the seeds of broader conflict potential that could reshape power dynamics throughout the region.
At the heart of recent tensions lies the January 2024 Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and North Western State of Somalia. The agreement, granting Ethiopia access to 19 kilometers of strategic coastline in exchange for political recognition, drew swift condemnation from the federal government in Mogadishu. Somalia fiercely opposes North Western State of Somalia’s calls for independence, considering the territory integral to its national sovereignty. Could this action signal a new era of tension and fragmentation in the Horn?
In an apparent countermove, Somali authorities quickly engaged in deepening military and diplomatic ties with Egypt and Eritrea—both countries embroiled in longstanding disputes with Ethiopia. Equally troubling was Egypt’s move in early 2025 to ramp up military assistance to Somalia. This development rang alarm bells across diplomatic circles, as critics warn Egypt’s intentions might stretch beyond aiding Somalia’s battle against extremism. Could this military assistance be Egypt’s strategic chess move to maneuver Somalia into its broader dispute over Ethiopia’s hydro-development along the Nile?
The report puts it plainly: “Tackling Al-Shabab is not the true motivation for cooperation between Somalia and Egypt; Egypt is strategically positioning itself to coerce Ethiopia out of its hydropower ambitions.”
Dr. Mercy Fekadu Mulugeta echoes this sentiment succinctly, observing, “Somalia’s shifting alliances mirror wider regional rivalries. What may appear as national defense policies are, in fact, transactional strategies tied to broader geopolitical fault lines.”
Despite efforts to foster diplomatic dialogue—including the December 2024 peace negotiations in Turkey known as the Ankara Agreement—progress remains uncertain. The report notes a troubling lack of transparency surrounding these talks, particularly concerning Ethiopia’s continued role in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission (AUSSOM) within Somalia. Has the Ankara Agreement genuinely reduced tension, or has it merely obscured unresolved issues behind a façade of diplomacy?
Internal voices within Somalia itself express doubts. Quoting a Somali federal minister, the report highlights local apprehension succinctly: “Egypt wants to turn us into a pawn in their broader struggle.” Are Somalia’s dealings inadvertently entangling them deeper into an international rivalry over Nile waters?
This is more than merely political tit-for-tat; the depth of historical grievances underpinning these relationships cannot be ignored. Egypt insists on colonial-era treaties granting it sweeping control over the Nile River’s waters—arrangements Ethiopia dismisses as outdated and unjust. In contrast, Ethiopia views the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as a sovereign right, aimed at securing its people’s economic and energy future. Somalia, willingly or not, now finds itself caught within this escalating controversy, an unintended party absorbing fallout from this heated hydro-diplomatic battlefield.
The study also warns of the creeping “weaponization” of peace support operations (PSOs). Ethiopia’s role within AUSSOM has become a focal point of controversy—especially given its recent agreements with North Western State of Somalia. Somali officials previously objected fiercely to Ethiopian forces serving under AUSSOM, citing clear conflicts of interest. Analyst and co-author Leulseged Girma stresses: “Peace support operations are now being weaponized by national interests, compromising Somalia’s stability and, indeed, the integrity of international peacekeeping itself.”
Does Ethiopia’s potential formal recognition of North Western State of Somalia carry implications beyond Somalia’s borders? Indeed, according to the authors, any official acknowledgment from Ethiopia could embolden separatist movements elsewhere in Africa, spark similar alliances, and reshape entire naval partnerships along strategic sea lanes in the Red Sea region.
Although North Western State of Somalia declared independence in 1991, recognition still eludes it, even from the UN community. Urging swift action at regional and international levels, the authors argue that organizations such as the African Union must revisit earlier fact-finding missions and establish clearer, equitable guidelines on the status of self-declared territories.
At the same time, Somali diplomacy reflects pragmatism, seeking partnerships beyond traditional Western alliances. Recent outreach to Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Tanzania symbolizes broader ambitions, signaling Somalia’s attempt to diversify its geopolitical relationships worldwide.
Simultaneously, the Horn of Africa attracts growing interest from global powers like the UAE, China, Russia, and Turkey. These nations continue to enhance regional footprints through port infrastructure, military bases, and economic partnerships—adding complexity to an already delicate regional equation. Whose interests ultimately benefit from this international scramble?
The authors call on influential organizations such as BRICS, the African Union (AU), and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to intervene proactively. Addressing rising regional tensions necessitates resolutions over Nile disputes between Egypt and Ethiopia and clearer oversight of politically-charged peace missions.
“Somalia’s strategic importance cannot be overstated,” concludes the report. Without coordinated diplomatic intervention, this nation risks becoming a battleground in escalating proxy confrontations that could engulf the entire region.
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
