In recent weeks, the oil industry has faced a series of dynamic shifts, influenced by global activities that ripple through economies far and wide. Amongst these shifts, Donald Trump’s recent tariff policy casts a long shadow, driving significant decreases in global crude oil prices. It’s a complex web where the actions in one corner of the world set off reactions in others—almost like the sophisticated dance of dominos, unpredictable yet meticulously precise.
Consider the OPEC Reference Basket of Crudes (ORB), an eclectic mix of resources from diverse locales: the Saharan Blend of Algeria, Djeno of Congo, and Nigeria’s Bonny Light, to name a few. This basket, a true melting pot of global resources, exemplifies the worldwide dependence and interconnectivity of markets. Our reliance on this basket isn’t just about economics; it’s a global pact of interdependence.
In a recent report, OPEC stated that “the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value declined by $2.81, or 3.7%, m-o-m, to average $74.00/b.” This figures as a stark reminder of the market’s fragile balance. How often do we consider the intricate systems that bring fuel to our vehicles or heat to our homes? Beyond the numbers, every fluctuation in price tells a deeper story about political maneuvering, environmental concerns, and technological advancements.
Intriguingly, global oil demand projections have taken a downward turn. The current estimate aligns at an increase of 1.3 mb/d year on year. Here, the impact of new U.S. tariffs looms large, like an uninvited guest at a carefully planned dinner, unsettling the harmony. How might this echo in the future consumption patterns of countries majorly dependent on oil like Nigeria or Iran?
OPEC’s report concedes the slight revision is “primarily a result of the received 1Q25 data and the anticipated impact on oil consumption from newly announced US tariffs.” Reflect on the far-reaching effects of policy changes and the resilience required by nations to maneuver through these powerful economic currents. It’s a perpetual balancing act—preserving economic stability while adapting to the disruptive forces of international policies.
Transport fuels are another fascinating segment, where change is quietly brewing. “Global jet/kerosene demand is forecast to grow by about 0.5 mb/d, y-o-y, each in 2Q25, 3Q25, and 4Q25,” OPEC elucidates. Do you recall the anticipation of a holiday journey, waiting at the airport? Now imagine the engines that power those dreams, the ripple effect of demand they create across sectors.
Similarly, OPEC predicts gasoline will follow a parallel path with growth of approximately 0.5 mb/d year-over-year in each subsequent quarter. Diesel too, usually the perennial workhorse, expects a quieter ascent. Its projected increase stands at 0.1 mb/d in 2Q25 and rising slightly thereafter. These numbers are grounded in meticulous analyses, yet one can’t help but ponder about unforeseen technological advancements or shifts in landscape that could change this trajectory.
Meanwhile, demand dynamics are being shaped by exciting new trends. Ahead of the summer season, Europe’s surging jet fuel markets have begun to stabilize, while increased exports to Africa have seen gasoil margins soar. These geographic and temporal shifts encapsulate a world in flux, with opportunities for growth hidden within the challenges.
Stepping onto familiar terrain, Africa’s largest oil producer, Nigeria, remains relatively insulated from the direct impact of U.S. tariffs, primarily due to exceptions in oil and gas and minimal trade exposure. Hence, the economic ramifications seem negligible, yet the whispers of a weakening naira and escalating public debt could serve as cautionary tales. Yet there’s buoyancy ahead, as increased oil production lends hope for fiscal improvement despite the bearish outlook on oil prices.
Top 5 African countries that produced the most oil in March 2025
| Rank | Country | DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d | Change between March and February |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Nigeria | 1,515 | -25 |
| 2. | Libya | 1,262 | -22 |
| 3. | Algeria | 912 | -2 |
| 4. | Congo | 259 | 1 |
| 5. | Gabon | 222 | -1 |
Among the countries illuminated in the latest oil production report, Nigeria maintained the pole position, despite a small reduction in its output. Libya and Algeria also saw slight declines, reflecting a subtle ebb and flow across the continent. Yet Congo signifies a beacon of increase within this tableau, illustrating resilience amid broader declines.
Comprehending this complexity is not just an exercise in economic literacy—it’s an invitation to understand the real-time impacts of geopolitical decisions and market forces. As we navigate through these ongoing changes, one question persists: How will emerging trends reshape the narratives of economies intertwined with oil, both in Africa and globally?
Edited By Ali Musa, Axadle Times International–Monitoring.
