Army chief’s warning deepens fault lines as Tigray’s future hangs in the balance
ADDIS ABABA — Ethiopia’s military chief on the fifth anniversary of the outbreak of the northern war branded part of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) a “criminal clique” and urged the people of Tigray to reject their leadership — words that highlight how fragile the country’s uneasy postwar calm has become.
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Field Marshal Birhanu Jula spoke at a ceremony remembering soldiers of the ENDF’s Northern Command, describing the night of the assault in late 2020 as “one of the darkest moments in Ethiopian history.” He accused a faction of the TPLF of masterminding an attack that, in his telling, turned citizens against their own forces and inflicted humiliation and suffering that must not be forgotten.
Historical wounds and a charged memorial
Birhanu’s language — calling for Tigrayans to “liberate themselves” from the TPLF clique and urging “youths and mothers” to reject its leadership — was at once a memorial address and a political signal. The imagery he used of soldiers ambushed, paraded and abused was raw and intended to stir collective memory. That narrative helped mobilize popular support for the federal campaign in Tigray in 2020–21, even as some of the most widely circulated claims remain disputed or poorly corroborated.
Memorials are never just about the past. In Ethiopia, a country still grappling with the consequences of a bloody conflict that uprooted millions and left vast swathes of the north in ruins, commemorating martyrs is an act of political theater as much as mourning. Birhanu’s speech was aimed as much at domestic audiences — the soldiers, the Addis Ababa public and wary federalists — as it was at Tigray itself.
What’s at stake now
The Tigray region remains politically fragmented. Since the Pretoria peace agreement of 2022, meant to end open fighting between the federal government and the TPLF, unity within Tigrayan politics has been elusive. Reports of splinter factions, internal rivalries and contested authority in Mekelle have undercut the fragile implementation of the accord.
Birhanu’s call to purge a “criminal clique” from TPLF leadership risks doing more than stigmatize a political rival. It could become a justification for renewed military pressure or political exclusion at a moment when reintegration, humanitarian access and justice mechanisms all need delicate handling. For many Ethiopians, still weary from years of wartime rhetoric, the spectacle of public denunciation raises old fears that the country’s disputes may once again be solved at the barrel of a gun.
Regional ripple effects
Ethiopia’s northern war did not stay within its borders. It reshaped migration flows, strained relations with neighboring Eritrea and unsettled markets and politics across the Horn of Africa. Any backslide toward confrontation in Tigray would ripple outward — increasing refugee flows to Sudan, upsetting fragile alliances, and complicating the work of international aid agencies that have only recently managed to reestablish some access.
International mediators and donors have been pressing for implementation of key elements of the Pretoria accord — disarmament, restoration of services, and accountability for abuses. But when senior officials publicly delegitimize one party in such uncompromising terms, it narrows the political space for negotiated compromises.
Why language matters
Words from the podium can set the frame for policy. Labeling a faction “criminal” invests proceedings with an aura of moral clarity that can simplify complex realities: the TPLF was once Ethiopia’s dominant political actor in federal institutions; its transformation into an insurgent force that attacked the Northern Command and later governed parts of Tigray is part of a longer story of political centralization, identity politics and contestation over Ethiopia’s federal settlement.
Too often, wartime narratives reduce those complexities to portraits of betrayal and revenge. That can be mobilizing in the short term but corrosive for the longer-term work of reconciliation, truth-telling and rebuilding. Ethiopia now faces the question confronting many post-conflict societies: can justice be pursued without sacrificing stability, and can reconciliation be meaningful without impunity?
Choices ahead
- Political marginalization or negotiated integration: Will the federal government seek to isolate TPLF remnants or open pathways for them to re-enter politics under clear rules?
- Security-first or civilian-led recovery: Will leaders prioritize military solutions or invest heavily in demobilization, service restoration and economic recovery?
- Domestic justice versus international scrutiny: How will Ethiopia handle accountability for wartime abuses while retaining sovereignty and avoiding paralyzing international litigation?
These are not academic questions. The answers will determine whether millions of displaced people can return home safely, whether schools and hospitals can be rebuilt, and whether Ethiopia’s delicate social compact can be repaired.
Looking beyond elites
Birhanu’s appeal to “youths and mothers” underscores the centrality of ordinary people in any political transformation. In Tigray towns and Addis neighborhoods people have been living with the war’s aftermath: shattered livelihoods, missing relatives, festering grievances. Any durable settlement must engage those experiences, not simply refight elite disputes in press statements or at international conferences.
The broader lesson — for Ethiopia and other societies emerging from violent fragmentation — is that peace is not merely the absence of gunfire. It is the painstaking work of rebuilding trust, restoring institutions and meeting material needs. That takes time, compromise and leaders who can speak in ways that invite rather than inflame.
As Ethiopia marks anniversaries of violence and loss, policymakers and citizens alike are left with hard choices. Will the language of exclusion and retribution set the course for another chapter of conflict, or can memory be transformed into a bridge toward political inclusion and repair? The answer will shape not just Tigray’s future but the stability of the Horn of Africa.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
