Libya’s National Oil Corporation and Italy’s Eni restart offshore exploration after five-year pause

Libya’s offshore revival: Eni and the NOC return after a five‑year pause — but stability remains the real prize

Libya’s state oil company announced this weekend that seismic surveys and geological work have resumed in several northwestern offshore blocks, marking the first time exploration operations by Italy’s Eni have been active in those waters in more than five years. The move, NOC officials said, follows technical and environmental assessments and is presented as part of a broader plan to “increase production capacity and optimize hydrocarbon resources.”

On its surface, the story is straightforward: a major Western energy company and Libya’s National Oil Corporation restarting work in an oil‑rich country where hydrocarbon activity has been repeatedly disrupted by politics and violence since the 2011 fall of Muammar Gaddafi. But the decision reverberates far beyond the decks of seismic ships. It touches on Italy’s economic and security interests, the fragility of Libyan state institutions, and Europe’s continuing search for diversified energy supplies after the shocks of the last decade.

Why now?

Eni is not a casual stranger to Libya. The Italian group is one of the country’s largest foreign energy investors, a partner in major projects such as the Bahr Essalam gas project and an operator in multiple concessions. Its return, NOC officials say, comes after assessments showed that the security situation in parts of the northwestern offshore has improved enough to proceed with non‑drilling activities — seismic mapping and preparatory studies that precede exploratory wells.

That improvement is relative. Libya’s oil sector has been the country’s economic backbone for decades, supplying the lion’s share of export revenues and government income, but it has also been vulnerable — to militias, blockades at key terminals, and the rival administrations that emerged after 2011. Production has swung wildly over the years because of these disruptions, punctuated by temporary recoveries when political actors negotiate access or calm is temporarily restored.

What Eni’s move means for Libya — and for Europe

For Tripoli and the NOC, the resumption is a political and economic signal. It suggests a willingness to accommodate foreign partners and to present an image of normalcy to investors. For Eni, which has deep commercial and historic ties to Libya and relies on Mediterranean supplies, the decision is pragmatic: seismic data are a low‑risk way to maintain engagement, keep crews employed, and position the company should the political horizon brighten enough to permit drilling.

There’s also a broader backdrop. Since Europe’s energy turbulence following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, governments have been keen to diversify gas and oil sources. Libya sits on Europe’s southern doorstep. The Greenstream pipeline has long carried Libyan gas to Italy, and Italian policymakers view energy cooperation with Libya as an element of political leverage — not least in migration talks and regional diplomacy. Eni’s activity, therefore, will be watched in capitals from Rome to Brussels.

Local hopes, cautious realities

In Libyan coastal towns, people speak in practical terms. “Work brings income,” said one fisherman in a western port who asked not to be named. “If companies come, there are jobs, and maybe the town benefits. But everyone remembers when pipelines were closed, and fields shut down. That could happen again.” Such ambivalence is common across communities that have lived through boom and bust in a country where natural wealth coexists with institutional fragility.

Technical teams are starting with seismic surveys — essentially the sonar of the oil world — which map underground structures and help companies decide where it would be worth drilling. These studies can take months and carry smaller security and environmental footprints than exploratory drilling, but they are also the prelude to potential new wells and, eventually, extraction. That prospect raises longstanding questions about who benefits locally, how revenues are managed, and whether the proceeds will be invested in a country still struggling to unify its governance.

Questions of governance and legitimacy

Observers say hydrocarbon deals in Libya have often been — intentionally or not — instruments of patronage and influence. Resource development has the potential to anchor national recovery if revenues are transparently managed and invested in services, infrastructure, and reconciliation. It can also reinforce the power of entrenched factions if distribution mechanisms remain opaque.

“Oil can be a bridge to stability, but it can also fuel the very divisions it’s meant to heal,” said an analyst who studies North African energy politics. “The context matters: how contracts are overseen, whether communities see tangible benefits, and whether revenues are shielded from predatory capture.”

Global implications and the road ahead

Eni’s tentative reappearance underscores how multinational energy corporations and host states navigate a complicated terrain of security, profit, and geopolitics. For Europe, Libya is both an opportunity and a risk: closer Mediterranean supplies could ease crunches at a time of uncertain global markets, but companies investing in Libya accept the latent threat that politics may interrupt their operations again.

For Libyans, the critical question is whether the resumption of exploration will translate into sustainable progress or simply another cycle of extraction and instability. Will revenues be distributed to rebuild schools, hospitals and ports, or will the wealth entrench narrow power blocs? Can foreign investment be leveraged to strengthen institutions rather than prop up short‑term bargains?

The coming months will reveal Eni’s appetite for deeper engagement and the NOC’s ability to shepherd projects through Libya’s complex political landscape. Seismic ships may now be humming off the coast, but the real work — of governance, accountability and inclusive development — lies onshore.

As the Mediterranean wakes to this new chapter, policymakers in Tripoli, Rome and Brussels should ask themselves: are we investing in Libya’s future, or merely in its fossil past?

By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.