They were originally scheduled for August 2020. Finally, after two launches, Ethiopia is organizing parliamentary elections on Monday. First vote since 2018 and the inauguration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. More than 37 million voters are called to the polls to elect their regional and federal parliamentarians. But the country’s situation is worrying.
The province of Tigray, in the north of the country, has had a bloody war between the central state and the former regional power since November. Other regions are also shaken by violence, especially tribal violence. Some constituencies will not be able to vote for security or technical reasons. This vote is a test for the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as it is supposed to represent the democratic renaissance of Ethiopia. A renewal requested by Abiy Ahmed, Nobel Peace Prize 2019, who, when he came to power, initiated deep reforms, liberated political prisoners, allowed relocation, made peace with Eritrea, etc.
With this election, Abiy Ahmed wants to get the referendum to establish his legitimacy. But the situation is not so simple. Deep fractures occurred. Wassihun Gebreegziabher, a professor at the University of Welkite, does not have a very engaging vision of the vote.
“I expect the worst. The political situation has become very complicated, security is fragile, many regions are suffering from conflicts, and the ruling party has already lost its legitimacy in the eyes of Ethiopians. Many opponents are in prison. All this shows that this vote will not be important for society and that only power will benefit. ”
One fifth of the constituencies will not be able to vote
As Ethiopia has been taken over by its demons and several regions have plunged into violence. We will not vote in about 1/5 of the constituencies:no choice in Tigray due to the war; no choice in part of the Benisangul-Gumuz region and western Oromia due to civil violence; no vote in Somalia and Harari region due to a problem printing polls. Some kind of referendum is scheduled for September 6, but not all will be affected.
“However, this may be the first real choice,” continues Professor Melisew Dejene, of the University of Awassa, who still prefers to have an optimistic view, especially if we compare with previous polls. See opposition parties suggest a program is completely new. even the public media lively political debates. ”
Progress but progress wounded by the repression of power against the opposition
There have been waves of arrests against political leaders, some of whom are accused of terrorism. As a result, several major movements have decided to boycott, such as the OFC. “It reduces the political space,” explains one of the OFC’s leaders, Merera Gudina. Our offices have been closed. Two years ago we had over 200. There are only three left. Political leaders, hundreds of them throughout the Oromia region, are in prison. We reach several thousand if we count the imprisoned activists. We expected better. Three years ago we were much more optimistic. But the government has practically declared war on us. A year ago, we managed to mobilize millions of people. The force panicked and it simply kicked us out of the political game. ”
With the lack of political figures and the boycott of certain parties, we therefore have limited competition. The Prime Minister’s Prosperity Party is the biggest favorite. Abiy Ahmed should be renewed.
Its main opponents will be the party EZeMa and Balderas. Balderas whose leader, Eskinder Nega is in prison. Still, the movement will participate. Although Geletaw Zeleke, one of his candidates, has strong reservations.
“European Union observers felt that international standards had not been met,” explains Geletaw Zeleke. We draw the same conclusions. So we have fear. We believe that Ethiopia is not ready to hold elections right now. Are there countries that organize elections when they are divided on the constitution itself? ”
A long-awaited vote, but which will therefore have its limits, because even if the vote is peaceful, it will not resolve the country’s deep political and social divisions. In this context, part of the population risks questioning the legitimacy of the vote.
