Dissident leaders in Ethiopia’s war-torn Tigray have promised to drive out “enemies” from the region, indicating that fighting will continue despite a federal declaration of violence.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sent troops into Tigray in November last year to reject the northern region’s former ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). He said the move came in response to TPLF attacks on federal army camps and promised victory would be swift.
But nearly eight months later, the operation suffered a major blow when rebels known as the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) entered the regional capital of Mekele on Monday, leading to celebrations in the streets as federal soldiers and members of an Abiy-appointed interim regional government escaped. .
Abiy’s government announced Monday night that it was declaring a “unilateral ceasefire,” although there was no immediate response from TDF. An overnight statement from the Tigray government before the war praised TDF’s progress and said Mekele was completely under its control.
“The Tigray Government urges our people and the Tigray Army to intensify their struggle until our enemies completely leave Tigray,” the statement said.
Rebels march on
Communication seemed to be interrupted throughout the region on Tuesday, making it difficult to verify reports of troop movements.
The International Crisis Group, a conflict prevention organization, said TDF “now controls most of the region, including major cities.” A UN official informed about the security situation told the Agence France-Presse (AFP) on Tuesday that Ethiopian troops and their Eritrean allies had fled the city of Shire, about 140 kilometers northwest of Mekele, which triggered further street riots.
“The population has taken to the streets in droves. Huge crowds stretch across the main roads and the movement is somewhat difficult,” reads a UN security assessment that was distributed on Tuesday afternoon. It said Ethiopian and Eritrean checkpoints had been left, and representatives of Tigray’s Abiy-appointed interim government had also fled.
Shire is home to hundreds of thousands of displaced Tigrayans, and the assessment noted that humanitarian operations continued even after four vehicles carrying TDF fighters arrived from the east before noon.
More TDF fighters were expected to reach Shire later in the afternoon and evening. For several months, the TDF had no major cities and towns, but its leaders have repeatedly boasted that they gathered in remote rural areas. Its latest gains come about a week after it launched a major offensive that coincided with Ethiopia’s long-awaited national election.
“Difficult” road to peace
The brutal war in Tigray has been marked by massacres, widespread sexual violence and other abuses. The UN has also warned that the conflict has driven hundreds of thousands of people to starvation.
The World Health Organization (WHO) on Tuesday reiterated concerns about access to health care in the region and warned of potential outbreaks of cholera, measles, malaria and yellow fever.
“With hospitals barely functioning, displaced people and the looming famine, the risk of communicable and vaccine – preventable diseases spreading due to lack of food, clean water, safe protection and access to health care is very real,” the WHO said: s talesman Tarik Jasarevic.
In its announcement of a ceasefire, the federal government said it would run until the end of the current “agricultural season” and was intended to facilitate agricultural production and distribution of aid while “rebel fighters” return to a peaceful path. “
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Monday that he had spoken to Abiy, the winner of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, and was “hopeful that an effective cessation of hostilities will take place”.
Britain, the United States and Ireland have called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, which could take place on Friday, diplomatic sources said.
The Security Council has not been able to hold a public session on Tigray since the outbreak of the war, with many African countries, China, Russia and other nations considering the crisis an internal Ethiopian affair.
During the fighting, Abiy has benefited from the support of soldiers from the neighboring Eritrea and Ethiopia’s Amhara region, which borders Tigray to the south. The intervention of these forces “will complicate a comprehensive application of a temporary ceasefire, which so far appears to be a mostly unilateral action by the federal government,” said Connor Vasey, an analyst with risk consulting firm Eurasia Group.
If discussions about a possible political solution would actually continue, they are probably difficult and long-lasting, says Vasey. On Tuesday, the French Foreign Ministry called on all parties to comply with the ceasefire and reiterated its call on Eritrean troops to leave Ethiopia.
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