Given that the state controls most of the country, and power is reserved for the dominant clan, Issas, and even more so the president’s sub – clan, the Mamasans, it is unlikely that we will witness a political transition.
It is not excluded that Omar Guelleh will change the constitution to remove the age limit just as he removed the limit on the number of seats in 2010.
But if he respected the constitution, he would surely seek a trusted successor, hence someone from his inner circle. which shares its line: authoritarianism, centralized power, the oppression of the opposition.
To truly transform the country and put it on the path to a democratic transition, a major social, political and economic earthquake would be required. But I have a hard time seeing an opposition boycott the electoral process and embody change.
Hafsa Halawa, Independent Analyst
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