Somalia’s Road to Democracy: A Complex Vision

The echo of “conducting free and fair direct elections” has been a familiar refrain among Somali officials since 2009. Along with ambitious ventures like “completing the constitution” and “eliminating terrorism,” these aspirations have been part of national discourse. Yet, over a decade and a half later, these goals remain elusive. One can’t help but wonder: Why are these dreams still unrealized? The answer might lie in their intricate interdependencies and the unique challenges Somalia faces.

The completion of the constitution is more than ink on paper; it requires achieving a political consensus among diverse Somali stakeholders. On the other hand, executing direct elections involves neutralizing armed groups that hold sway over large swathes of the country. Both paths lead to the necessity of political reconciliation—or, to be precise, political consensus. It is a tangled web in which every thread is significant.

Today, the call for “direct elections” is intensifying, particularly under President Hassan Sheikh’s leadership. It resonates widely with current government members and their constituencies. But does this enthusiasm reflect an earnest belief in its feasibility, or is it just political maneuvering? Despite this clamor, the sobering truth remains: the groundwork for such elections is yet to be firmly laid.

Consider the country’s political landscape. Somalia is a nation divided—not just in terms of its geography, but politically as well. The federal government remains in open conflict with Jubaland and Northeastern State. Beneath this surface, simmering tensions with other states could easily flare up, masking any appearance of unity.

The security front is equally precarious. Al-Shabaab’s shadow still looms large over the nation, a reminder of the federal government’s ongoing struggle to relinquish their grip. Thus, any talk of “direct elections” could only be realistically limited to small, relatively secure areas.

Interestingly, members of Somalia’s bicameral parliament are not entirely on board with the idea of direct elections. In many ways, their political future feels threatened by this potential shift from indirect elections. For them, the status quo offers a familiar path back to their seats.

Yet, when a controversial constitutional amendment arises, many parliamentarians vote in favor—perhaps not out of agreement, but rather a desire to adhere to presidential directives. There’s a disconnect here, isn’t there? Despite the lack of true conviction, the wheels of governance continue to turn.

“Direct elections are not a magical solution to Somalia’s issues. Instead, they are a long-term aspiration, achievable only through gradual progress over generations.” — A Somali wise proverb captures the essence.

Perhaps a gradual approach, beginning with localized direct elections, might better serve Somalia at this juncture. It would allow for development at a manageable pace, building a firm foundation over time. Presently, the rhetoric of officials and politicians amounts to little more than hollow promises and unrealistic hopes.

Realistically, the nation is not yet ready on several fronts—be it political, tribal, or social—for a full embrace of direct elections. A prudent interim solution might involve improving the existing clan-based power-sharing method, the 4.5 formula. This system, while not perfect, fits the current context of Somali politics better than forced elections.

Consider this: Most individuals at the helm of executive, legislative, and judicial roles, alongside aspiring power players, lack the requisite qualifications and integrity to oversee elections that are truly free, transparent, and fair. Is it time we acknowledge this truth before forging ahead blindly?

Despite the allure of direct elections, the optimistic vision remains more imagined than feasible amidst Somalia’s political divisions, security dilemmas, and lack of national agreement. Until these foundational issues are addressed, this dream risks being mere illusion rather than attainable reality.