Somalia vs Guinea in Kampala: Group G showdown

In Exile but Unbowed: Somalia and Guinea Chase Pride and Direction in Kampala

A match far from home

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On a breezy Friday evening in Kampala, Uganda’s Mandela National Stadium will stand in for Mogadishu. Somalia “hosts” Guinea there in a World Cup qualifier that won’t change the group’s balance of power, but still holds weight in ways a scoreboard can’t always measure. It is a low-stakes fixture, perhaps, but one heavy with pride, patience and the hope of forward motion for two teams searching for a foothold.

Somalia’s Ocean Stars are winless in this campaign and rooted to the bottom of Group G with a single point and three goals to their name. Their only point came against Friday’s opponents in March — a taut 0–0 that confirmed what most already knew: Somalia can dig in defensively, but has struggled to get the ball moving with any conviction the other way.

Guinea, the Syli National, arrive in Kampala with seven points and a new coach, clinging to faint mathematical possibilities in a group led by Algeria and Uganda. They stunned Algeria 2–1 last year and then lost to Mozambique and Uganda — a staccato rhythm of surprise and frustration that cost veteran coach Michel Dussuyer his job in August. Paulo Duarte, the Portuguese manager who guided Burkina Faso to two Africa Cup of Nations semifinals, now gets his first competitive look at a squad in transition.

Guinea hits reset under Duarte

Guinea’s football has often been a knot of contradictions: talent-rich and yet brittle; disciplined in phases but allergic to momentum. They have scored just five times in six group matches and their defense — once a reliable calling card — has kept only three clean sheets in its last ten. Duarte inherits a group that can look formidable on the teamsheet: Bundesliga goal machine Serhou Guirassy, fresh off a 28-goal season with Stuttgart, and Naby Keïta, the former Liverpool midfielder whose experience still steadies the group even as injuries have shaped his recent years.

Duarte’s first task is rudimentary and complex all at once: get Guinea to play two good games in a row. “Consistency wins qualifying campaigns,” he has often said across his African postings. In Kampala, that will mean sharper decision-making in the final third and a back line less prone to lapses after halftime. Any slip here, and the last embers of qualification hope may flicker out.

Somalia’s long, deliberate rebuild

For Somalia, the table only tells a sliver of the story. The Ocean Stars’ rebuild, reliant on a far-flung diaspora, is fragile but ongoing. Yusuf Ali Nur, the head coach, has spent the year adjusting his midfield and back four, seeking balance and a reliable outlet to relieve pressure. One of the latest call-ups is Abdi Sharif of Connah’s Quay Nomads, a nod to experience and tactical control. Somalia hasn’t scored in two matches and has won just once in 19 World Cup qualifying fixtures since 2000 — that landmark 1–0 over Zimbabwe in 2019 that still warms conversations among Somali fans from Hargeisa to Helsinki.

Yet the setting keeps shifting under their feet. Somalia continue to stage “home” fixtures in Kampala because of security and logistical hurdles in Mogadishu. It is a practical solution with an emotional cost. Home crowds matter — not only as a 12th man, but as a sign that a national team belongs to its people, not only in symbol but in sound and sight. There’s a different energy when your anthem echoes off the walls of your own city.

There are flickers of a path back. Earlier this year, Mogadishu staged a FIFA- and CAF-backed “Legends Peace Tour” at the refurbished national stadium. The presence of Samuel Eto’o, Jay-Jay Okocha and Emmanuel Adebayor felt like an opening act — the first such event in more than three decades, a hint that the country’s football dreams might yet find a home address again. For a national team that has spent years living out of a suitcase, even symbolic steps matter.

Bigger than the table

Friday’s match, then, is two stories at once. The first is sporting: Guinea need a win to stay within mathematical reach of Uganda and Algeria; Somalia need goals, and the self-belief that comes with them. The second is about the journeys nations take to rebuild — and the way football often becomes the most public, sometimes cruelly honest, mirror of that work.

Somalia’s struggle to create chances is no secret. They’ve been conceding more than they score for most of this campaign, and their best passages often come when they pack the central lanes, disrupt rhythm, and try to steal something on set pieces or counters. The question is whether they can show a different face in Kampala — not only surviving, but dictating a few passages of play and giving the traveling supporters a reason to rise.

Guinea, by contrast, bring the burden of expectation. Supporters have long argued that this is a team that should be in almost every Africa Cup knockout draw. In reality, injuries, managerial turnover and inconsistent finishing have marked the last few years. Duarte’s arrival carries the gentle hum of a reset: professionalize the details, trust in Guirassy’s movement, and coax a vintage performance from Keïta as the link between compact defense and fast-breaking attack.

Part of a wider African story

Somalia playing home fixtures in Kampala is not an isolated oddity. Yemen, Syria and Palestine have spent long stretches of their footballing lives in exile. Ukraine have roamed during war. Politics and conflict redraw fixtures lists and flight plans, but never fully extinguish the game’s pull. In that sense, Kampala becomes a neutral canvas where communities in motion come to sing their colors. It’s a reminder that, sometimes, the mere act of taking the field — with cameras on and flags raised — is its own small victory.

What to watch on the night

  • Guirassy’s touch: He needs few chances. If Guinea get him service early, Somalia’s back line will be under stress.
  • Keïta between the lines: His fitness and rhythm will shape how quickly Guinea can transition from cautious to assertive.
  • Somalia’s set pieces: In a low-scoring side, dead-ball routines can be the equalizer.
  • Midfield duels: Can Yusuf Ali Nur’s adjustments give Somalia the outlet they lacked in recent defeats?
  • The crowd: Kampala understands the assignments of hospitality. Expect a warm, curious audience — and pockets of Somali diaspora fans who will make enough noise for a city.

No, this isn’t the clash that will decide World Cup berths. But the game speaks to larger truths folded into African football’s present: the power of a new manager to change a mood, the resilience of a team without a true home, and the insistent belief that tomorrow can be better if you hold your shape and keep running. The Ocean Stars and the Syli National will bring what they have. For ninety minutes in Kampala, that will be more than enough to matter.

By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.

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