When President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud returned to office in 2022, optimism was palpable, and many felt Somalia was on the brink of a major transformation.
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His second term began with significant national and international goodwill, encapsulated in his manifesto’s slogan: peace at home and with the world. With the successful negotiation for debt relief totaling $4.5 billion, the lifting of a long-standing UN arms embargo, and Somalia’s entry into the East African Community (EAC), it seemed the future held promise.
An unprecedented, community-led offensive against al-Shabaab saw vast territories reclaimed in central Somalia, a remarkable achievement none of his predecessors had managed. Clans openly supported this new approach. Women, under the Ma’awisley banner, provided sustenance to young fighters taking on al-Shabaab in ways previously unimaginable. Territories under the group’s control for over a decade were liberated by the Somali National Army and Ma’awisley militia. It was a time of hope—Somalis dared to dream of brighter days, and the slogan “Somali-led, Somali-owned” resonated as never before. Even government ministers and lawmakers picked up arms, joining forces, with President Mohamud pitching camp in Dhusamareb to coordinate war efforts. Remarkably, his unkempt beard became a symbol of dedication, illustrating a leader engrossed in commanding his forces on the battlefield.
Yet this euphoria and goodwill would soon dissipate. The President returned to Mogadishu, entangled in political maneuvers characterized by a focus on survival—a hallmark of Somali politics. He abandoned his war agenda, fully engaging with the political battlefield.
Rift with Federal Member States
First on his political agenda was the unilateral reworking of the Provisional Constitution through a parliament largely under his influence. This precipitated a significant political fallout with Jubaland and Puntland, perhaps the most prominent Federal Member States. The proposed changes aimed to transition Somalia from a parliamentary to a presidential system and introduce the First-Past-the-Post voting system, moving away from the clan-based framework. While this transition was welcomed, it called for inclusive consultation, which was noticeably absent. Puntland suspended its recognition of the federal government in March 2024 due to the lack of consultation in the constitutional review process.
Relations with Jubaland were even more strained. In December 2024, the SNA launched a military campaign in Ras Kamboni to weaken Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe. The operation failed, resulting in the surrender of over 250 SNA soldiers and the flight of 600 others into Kenya, where they were disarmed by the Kenya Defence Forces. This incident drew heavy criticism, reminiscent of similar missteps by former President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmaajo,” whose aggressive centralization efforts backfired.
Notably, the SNA is primarily funded by the international community, and its use in internal political disputes raises serious questions about the potential misuse of external resources.
A War Half-Won, Now Losing Direction
The initial drive in the fight against al-Shabaab—largely led by local Ma’awisley militias in regions like Mudug, Galgadud, and Middle Shabelle—has stalled. Reports suggest that clans are disillusioned by the President’s shift in focus toward politics, leaving regions under al-Shabaab’s oppression without sustained support from the federal government. This lack of commitment has severely hampered the operational effectiveness of the Ma’awisley forces.
In this context, al-Shabaab is regaining ground. The strategic capture of Adan Yabal and significant losses inflicted on the SNA in April marked a major setback for the Federal Government after a victorious campaign in Middle Shabelle town in July 2022. Furthermore, al-Shabaab has reclaimed several villages and launched attacks on government forces, including a daring IED attack on the President’s convoy in Mogadishu in March. Security analysts argue these setbacks are linked to the President’s deliberate shift away from a committed war effort in favor of political expediency.
Frequent changes in the leadership of both the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) and the SNA have further weakened institutional continuity and response capacity.
Uncertainty Over AUSSOM’s Future
Amidst the lackluster war efforts against Al-Shabaab by Somali Security Forces, the fate of the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) hangs in the balance due to precarious funding. There’s notable financing fatigue despite a crucial period of preparation for the eventual handover of full responsibilities to the Somali Security Forces. AUSSOM, needing $166.5 million in its first year alone, faces significant funding gaps and inherited debt. Without robust international backing, the risk of a security vacuum looms large, potentially benefiting al-Shabaab greatly.
President Mohamud’s Options
Following widespread criticism and mounting pressure from the opposition, which convened a series of meetings recently, President Mohamud announced a national consultative forum set for June 15. Bringing together stakeholders at both the federal and regional levels, the forum aims to include FMS presidents, opposition leaders, and civil society, among others. While this step is welcomed, it seems belated and lacks conviction. President Mohamud, already gearing up for the May 2026 presidential elections, has launched the Justice and Solidarity Party (JSP).
Building confidence with stakeholders, especially the opposition, requires the President to act transparently, positioning himself as a genuine party leader rather than merely a candidate in upcoming elections. A critical task before the June 15 meeting is securing buy-in from Jubaland and Puntland while extending conciliatory gestures to opposition leaders, some of whom are former Presidents. All parties must have the opportunity for active participation, and the Federal Government must show a strong commitment to revisiting contentious issues such as the electoral model and constitutional amendments passed by parliament.
Equally important is refocusing on the security sector and military operations. Returning to the battlefield could indeed be the game changer necessary. The national army, regional forces, and Ma’awisley group desperately need the President’s attention and commitment. Of particular note is Puntland’s commendable fight against ISIS. The President should acknowledge this effort, open communication channels with the Puntland government, and engage with soldiers on the frontline.
The National Leadership Forum, pivotal in uniting the Federal Government and Federal Member State leaders during President Mohamud’s first term, should be revitalized with urgency. President Mohamud must demonstrate resolve, reaching out to leaders like President Abdullahi Deni and Ahmed Madobe to genuinely engage. Only by rallying all Federal Member States can the country hope to progress.
Abdirahman Yusuf Ali is a social and peace activist, founder of Uistaag Dadka iyo Dalka, researcher, and writer. He previously served as Youth Development Advisor at the Federal Ministry of Youth and Sports and offered advisement at the Federal Member State level.
Organization: Uistaag Dadka iyo Dalka
Email: [email protected]
Edited By Ali Musa, Axadle Times International–Monitoring.
