President Mohamud, PM Barre to attend new Northeastern State leader’s swearing-in

Analysis: A New Chapter in Las Anod Tests Somalia’s Fragile Federalism

In the dust-brown city of Las Anod, the center of a long-contested patch of northern Somalia, a political ceremony is poised to send a message that carries well beyond the city’s edge. Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre are expected to attend the swearing-in of Abdikadir Ahmed Aw-Cali—widely known as Firdhiye—as president of the newly formed Northeastern Somali administration. The move signals not only the federal government’s recognition of a local authority but also a recalibration of power in one of the most sensitive corners of the Horn of Africa.

Firdhiye was elected on Aug. 30 alongside his deputy, Abdirashid Yussuf Jibril. For many Somalis, this moment is the culmination of a turbulent year in which communities in Sool, Sanaag and Cayn sought to assert their own governance after months of unrest that battered Las Anod and displaced families who were already used to packing up in hurry. It is a political pivot that will test Somalia’s still-evolving federal model and the balance between local aspiration and national cohesion.

Why it matters

Las Anod is no ordinary city. It sits at the seam of competing claims and loyalties, long tugged between North Western State of Somalia’s self-declared independence and Puntland State’s administrative reach. That tug-of-war has at times been violent. The new Northeastern Somali administration—rooted in communities across Sool, Sanaag and Buuhoodle—arrives as a local answer to a long-standing question: who gets to draw the map of authority in northern Somalia, and under what flag?

The expected attendance of the president and prime minister is heavy with symbolism—a public embrace of a fledgling administration that insists it belongs within Somalia’s federal framework. Second Deputy Speaker of the Senate Abdullahi Timacadde put it bluntly: “The President and the Prime Minister have fulfilled their national responsibility to protect the unity of the country.” He cast the federal leaders’ trip as an act of stewardship, saying it reflects their commitment to Somalia’s unity and stability after a bruising period for the region.

The players—and shifting sands

Firdhiye, the new regional president, inherits a mandate born in crisis and community mobilization. His election is no mere local affair; it is a bid to consolidate authority where governance was both contested and fractured. That bid is bolstered by influential figures like Timacadde who, notably, has realigned his own political loyalties. A former Puntland State interior minister and once a close ally of Puntland State President Said Abdullahi Deni, Timacadde has in recent months repositioned himself to support the new regional formation centered on Las Anod.

Such shifts reflect a larger truth about Somali politics: allegiances are fluid, and power coalesces where legitimacy—especially local legitimacy—can be claimed and protected. In this case, lawmakers from both houses of parliament representing Sool, Sanaag and Cayn have pledged to work together to give the new administration structure and spine, bridging divides that have often hampered governance in the north.

Federalism on a fault line

Somalia’s provisional federal system has long been an exercise in balance—between center and periphery, clan and citizenship, immediate security needs and long-term state-building. The emergence of a Northeastern Somali administration in Las Anod sits on that fault line. It will undoubtedly spur debate over federalism and territorial control, testing the willingness of all sides to prioritize process over maximalist claims.

The politics of recognition carry risks. In Hargeisa, home to North Western State of Somalia’s administration, the optics of Mogadishu’s top leadership attending a rival regional inauguration in a contested city will be scrutinized. In Garowe, Puntland State’s political establishment will weigh the implications of a new neighbor asserting itself across areas it has administered or claimed. If not carefully managed, competing narratives of legitimacy could lead to a new round of recriminations—and instability.

But this moment also opens the door to a badly needed reset. For years, residents of Sool, Sanaag and Cayn have spoken of the absence of durable governance, the erosion of basic services, and the fatigue of living at the edge of multiple authorities. Can a fresh arrangement bring clarity on security, courts, and the distribution of public resources? Can it knit together local confidence with national support without triggering a contest of flags and uniforms?

Las Anod’s ordinary resilience

Beyond the politics, Las Anod is a city of stubborn normalcy. Even during unrest, tea stalls found ways to reopen after dusk. Young men leaned over mobile money counters to top up their phones, and radio stations crackled with call-in shows debating everything from football scores to federalism. That daily resilience is the fabric any new administration must respect and serve. It is also a reminder that, while leaders negotiate frameworks, ordinary people are searching for safety, schools, clinics, and the chance to work without fear.

Risks—and a narrow window

There are clear hazards ahead. Security is paramount: integrating local fighters into coherent command structures, demobilizing youths who took up arms during unrest, and ensuring the city does not slip back into a militarized stalemate. Inclusive politics will matter just as much as checkpoints. The narrative of unity is persuasive only if the administration delivers an inclusive cabinet, transparent budgets, and basic services. Otherwise, old grievances will find new life.

There are also regional headwinds. The Horn of Africa is awash with unsettled borders and shifting centers of power—from Ethiopia’s experiments with regional autonomy to Sudan’s devastating fragmentation. External powers and diaspora networks add layers of influence and expectation. In that wider context, Somalia’s leaders are trying to demonstrate that a negotiated federal solution can work, even in tough neighborhoods like Las Anod.

What to watch next

• Whether President Hassan Sheikh and Prime Minister Barre make the trip as planned—and how they frame it in public remarks.
• Reactions from North Western State of Somalia’s leadership and Puntland State authorities, and whether channels of dialogue remain open.
• Formation of the new administration’s cabinet, security architecture, and its relationship with federal institutions in Mogadishu.
• Coordination among lawmakers from Sool, Sanaag and Cayn, who have pledged to overcome past divisions to support the region.
• Humanitarian steps for displaced families and investments in services that can quickly build trust.

The bottom line

This inauguration is both a ceremony and a stress test. It asks whether Somalia’s federal system can accommodate a complex local reality without re-igniting old conflicts. It also asks whether leaders in Mogadishu can help broker a durable settlement that keeps citizens’ needs—and not just political optics—at the center.

In Las Anod, people have had their fill of political experiments that promise order and deliver uncertainty. If the Northeastern Somali administration can stabilize institutions, ease tensions, and restore basic services, it will do more than raise a new regional flag. It will show that, even on contested ground, a carefully tended federal bargain can hold.

By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.