Ethiopia, a large and diverse nation, is in pursuit of a goal many consider essential for its economic vision: a solid hold on maritime access. This aspiration took a noteworthy turn in 2023 when Ethiopia struck a deal with North Western State of Somalia, a self-declared republic. The deal, which found Ethiopia trading recognition of North Western State of Somalia’s independence for a coveted 20-kilometer coastal stretch, soon sparked geopolitical unrest in the region. Not surprisingly, the course of this agreement has shifted with the winds of political change in North Western State of Somalia.
Uniquely, Turkey played the mediator and set the stage for a fresh chapter by fostering secretive negotiations. An undisclosed agreement has been fashioned between Ethiopia and Somalia, prompting Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to visit the heart of Somalia—Mogadishu. However, as with most significant diplomatic movements, the finer details of this compact are shrouded in silence. Yet, a glimmer of transparency emerged when it was noted that both leaders have committed to work on strategic projects. Could this be the dawn of a new alliance?
Many eyes are now scrutinizing Ethiopia’s military footprint within Somalia—a relic of its peacekeeping mission under the African Union and a separate bilateral arrangement. There’s an air of mystery as the numbers of Ethiopian troops deployed remain tucked away from public knowledge. Such opacity often fuels speculation rather than dousing it.
Somali State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ali Mohamed Omar, addressed Universal TV, offering tantalizing hints that a final pact is nearing completion, tentatively around October. He confidently shared, “The agreement will outline the designated port Ethiopia will use, its location along the Indian Ocean, and all associated financial arrangements.” As he spoke, his words painted vivid images of coastal lines and bustling ports—perhaps a vision of dreams turning tangible.
Concurrently, Ethiopia’s military leader, General Birhanu Jula, has added layers to this unfolding narrative. In the wake of the recent Ethiopia-Somalia understanding, his statements subtly suggested Ethiopia’s nearness to joining the prestigious group of Red Sea nations. Those comments came on the heels of tensions ignited by a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) etched with North Western State of Somalia. This contentious document proposed access to a Red Sea corridor, a notion Somalia fiercely protests as an infringement upon its sovereign rights.
“Only a short time remains before Ethiopia becomes one of the nations bordering the Red Sea,” General Birhanu boldly declared. And yet, he left out the blueprint of how such ambitions would morph into reality. This ambiguity leaves room for an important question: How far is Ethiopia willing to go to fulfill its maritime dream?
While Ethiopia navigates these complex waters, its opponents, like Egypt, align themselves with Somalia and Eritrea, seeking to curb Addis Ababa’s influence. Ripples of diplomacy were evident when Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Egypt’s Foreign Minister, Dr. Badri Abdellati, convened, underscoring regional Red Sea security concerns and Ethiopia’s port pursuits. Here, one is reminded of the saying, “Diplomacy is the art of telling people to go to hell in such a way that they look forward to the trip.”
Ethiopia seems tireless, striving to lessen its dependence on Djibouti, currently engaged for over 90% of its maritime commerce. The stormy relations with Eritrea have severed earlier routes through the Assab Port, leaving Ethiopia in a quandary, searching for allies willing to offer a stable maritime gateway. So far, silence has greeted these overtures from both Somalia and Djibouti regarding a permanent naval base.
Some speculate that as Ethiopia cozies up to Somalia, ties with Eritrea unravel, leaving room for potential conflict. Analysts warn that this regional dynamic, a potential powder keg, could explode if tensions over maritime access persist.
Nonetheless, Ethiopia keeps asserting that any use of force would be reactionary, framing its maritime aspirations as a non-negotiable matter of economic life or death. Yet the question lingers in the air: How eagerly will Somalia embrace Ethiopia’s demands for a maritime tether? And how will the landscapes of cooperation and conflict evolve along those ocean highways?
With contributions from the BBC Somali Service, this article takes pause to reflect on a region ever on the brink of change—where the sands shift as governance and diplomacy meet.
Correction Note:
This article has been enhanced with further exposition of General Birhanu Jula’s recent assertions concerning Ethiopia’s acquisition objective for Red Sea access. His bold expression that Ethiopia is nearing inclusion among Red Sea coastal states has generated renewed concerns around Addis Ababa’s maritime strategies.
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring
