In East Africa, the moment is now for proactive peace efforts.
Recently, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud approached a Turkish Navy vessel at Mogadishu’s port following the inked defense and economic deal with Turkey. This event took place in Mogadishu, Somalia, on April 23, 2024. Photo by Feisal Omar/REUTERS.
Last time America stood on the brink of election frenzy, Ethiopia was stirring with potential conflict. The central government’s friction with the Tigray province erupted in tandem with the U.S. election day in November 2020, launching a pricey and prolonged war that jeopardized Ethiopia’s unity. A peace agreement in 2022 halted much of Tigray’s bloodshed, yet several issues linger unresolved, chiefly the return of displaced individuals. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s coalition, once formidable against Tigray, started to crumble with ongoing unrest smoldering in Amhara and Oromia.
Fast forward to today, where the U.S. embroils itself in another nail-biting presidential contest, facing numerous global conflicts vying for attention. Ignoring the potential turmoil brewing in the Horn of Africa could be easy. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s yearning to reach the Red Sea, coupled with his audacious risk-taking, has neighboring countries on edge. His talks with North Western State of Somalia for maritime access inflamed the strained Ethiopia-Somalia relationship. Egypt, with Nile waters in mind, has exploited regional unease to recruit allies, recently supplying Somalia with arms. Eritrea, ever eager to see neighboring nations weakened, entered discussions with Egypt and Somalia.
Non-African nations with stakes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are anything but passive. Turkey rejuvenates its ties with Somalia, while the UAE stays close to Abiy, illustrating the convoluted regional dynamics. These historical disputes and intertwining influences heighten the risk of diplomatic blunders escalating to conflict. Should tensions flare, Africa would bear the brunt, with wider repercussions for global trade as pivotal shipping routes grow precarious, and nations face strains from refugee influxes. Events in this region bear worldwide consequences.
The globe can ill afford added strife. Witness Sudan’s relentless civil war, struggling for attention and aid amidst dire humanitarian peril, set to worsen with famine’s looming threat. Somalia’s instability grants al-Shabaab a fertile ground, potentially drawing nearer to Yemen’s Houthi insurrectionists. Despite internal political distractions, it’s vital the U.S. prioritizes soothing tensions and forestalls further catastrophe by dismantling proxy wars.
Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring
