MOGADISHU (Horn Observer/Kaab TV) – President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia is currently facing a rather intricate challenge. His recent decision to embrace a renewed camaraderie with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, following a tense year of fraught relations, has prompted waves of unease among some of Somalia’s historically steadfast allies, notably Eritrea and Egypt.
This unexpected pivot towards Ethiopia was marked by a warm reception of Prime Minister Abiy in Mogadishu last Thursday, where essential dialogues were engaged with President Mohamud and significant figures of the Somali government. This significant visit follows mediation endeavors spearheaded by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, with substantial backing from European allies in December.
At the heart of the discussions lay the urgency to iron out differences that had arisen after Ethiopia forged a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with North Western State of Somalia, paving the way for Ethiopian access to the Red Sea and establishing a 20-kilometer naval military base along with critical port access. Is it pivotal strategic foresight or a risky gamble? The unfolding events will tell.
As articulated in a statement from the Somali President’s Office, their meeting was pivotal, honing in on bolstering partnerships in security, economic development, and social spheres. The leaders revisited the tapestry of their shared history, stressing a commitment to sovereignty and non-interference in each other’s national narratives. These discussions are yet another testament to diplomacy’s ever-present intricacy, hinting at a past narrative attempting to merge into a future vision.
They capped off the visit with a striking gesture, escorting Abiy to the tranquil Lido Beach, symbolizing the potential ebb and flow of their newfound diplomatic embrace. Onlookers could not help but wonder if this was merely a diplomatic nicety or an earnest step towards mending their past grievances. As Theodore Roosevelt once said, “Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far.”
Prime Minister Abiy took to X (formerly known as Twitter) to extend his gratitude, penning an appreciative note: “We held expansive discussions touching upon peace, economy, diplomacy, and pioneering infrastructure collaboration.” Financial tides are shifting, particularly with the United Arab Emirates fueling Ethiopia’s ambition to develop a new naval base and expand its port use, traditionally dominated by Djibouti.
Despite the standing MOU, Somalia is swiftly ushering a fresh agreement into reality. This seasoned strategy permits the Ethiopian army’s re-entry into the African Union Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) while also granting Ethiopian naval operations leverage through Somali waters, notably those threading the Red Sea. In tandem, as part of the Hassan Sheikh-Abiy accord, Ethiopia is poised to gain new port access with full operational rights—a move that could redefine regional dynamics.
Notwithstanding these strategic openings, the regional landscape is not without its frothing uncertainties. Somalia’s realignment has stoked additional tensions with Eritrea and Egypt—Ethiopia’s most vocal challengers. The regional undercurrents resonate with undertones of unsettlement.
Egypt swiftly dispatched a delegation led by Foreign Minister Dr. Badr Abdelatty to sit down with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in Asmara, reflecting diplomatic agility at play. Minister Yemane Meskel of Eritrea characterized the meeting as an essential exchange on pivotal regional complexities—the Sudan conflict, Somalia’s reconstruction, and persistent quests for peace in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea regions. Could this be a diplomatic watershed moment or merely another chapter in a convoluted saga?
Since October 2024, a trilateral engagement comprising Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia has sought to corner out Ethiopia, thwarting its aspirations for Red Sea entry. This entente cordiale was staunchly fashioned in reaction to Ethiopia’s burgeoning regional agenda—territorial and militaristic acuity steering its path.
One nameless diplomat reflects on the scenarios ahead, intimating, “Somalia’s shift towards Ethiopia might unfurl as a profound upheaval for Egypt and Eritrea—each could construe this pivot as an affront, possibly wobbling once-firm opposition to Ethiopia’s expansionist blueprint.”
The Turkish-brokered Somalia-Ethiopia alignment did not tread lightly on Egyptian or Eritrean ties. President Erdoğan’s stance diverges from Egyptian stances, complicated by Turkey’s alignment with factions like the Muslim Brotherhood—a source of Egyptian consternation.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s remarks, mingled with wary optimism, delineated careful watchfulness over Somalia and Ethiopia’s new accord, hoping for a stabilizing influence across Horn of Africa landscapes.
Reflecting strategic finesse, cautious but concerted, Paris plays a delicate diplomatic duet with Ethiopia, propelled by infrastructure development, aviation adventures, and substantial contributions to Ethiopian defenses.
Egypt steadfastly refuses Ethiopia’s Red Sea pursuits. As illustrated by Minister Badr Abdelatty’s staunch declaration in January: “Any foreign military foothold along the Red Sea coastline is unequivocally non-negotiable for Cairo.”
Somalia, balancing on this precarious precipice, traverses a fragile path brimming with newfound partnerships and age-old friendship complexities.
President Isaias Afwerki, responding to Somali inclinations towards Ethiopia, has realigned with Egypt, crafting a counterweight capable of reining in Ethiopian influences. Yet, a palpable rift trembles along these alliance seams.
Across these complex and shifting sands of allegiance, Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Meskel reflects on upcoming consultations between Eritrea and Egypt—a deliberation striving for shared approaches to substantive regional security and stability.
Eritrea, equipped with disappointment from the Tigray struggle’s insufficient outcome, grumbles over Ethiopian-North Western State of Somalia concessions—akin to salt upon old wounds, emboldening Eritrea’s territorial protests.
Should Ethiopia’s path span the Red Sea corridors, both diplomatic and military calculations could teeter towards an intensified regional arms race. Neighboring nations may fortify positions along Red Sea shores—complicating Somalia’s navigational diplomacy.
In contemplating these enflamed geographies, the reality settles in—or does it remain ever elusive? As Somalia seeks neutrality, caught in the crux between formidable influences, will its aspirations sail with the winds, or be cast against tumultuous tides?
Reporting by: Mohamed Abdi Mohamud
Edited by Ali Musa, Axadle Times International–Monitoring
