Three years have slipped by since President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud ascended to power in Somalia, a nation still navigating the delicate art of governance following decades of turmoil. Elected through a rather intricate indirect electoral model, where parliamentarians drawn from clan delegates select the president, this system has long been a double-edged sword. As his term inches toward its conclusion with merely a year remaining, discussions have heated up regarding how power will relinquish itself come next year.
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President Mohamud has passionately argued that the only appropriate mode of power transfer is through a one-person, one-vote (1P1V) system—an election model that embodies the essence of democracy. In line with this vision, the federal government has hastily established an electoral committee, launching a voter registration drive in parts of Mogadishu.
While transitioning to direct elections can symbolize hope and acceleration towards democratic governance, the journey is riddled with skepticism. Security challenges condition the landscape of many regions, while opposition from certain federal member states adds another layer of complication. It’s curious, isn’t it? Is this push for 1P1V merely a strategy to extend the current administration’s grip on power, cleverly masked as democratization? The unyielding nature of the voter registration efforts, introduced without widespread consensus among all federal member states and stakeholders, further heightens tensions and stirs doubts regarding the legitimacy of the forthcoming electoral process.
With these complexities in play, this assessment delves into the political and logistical feasibility of various electoral scenarios ahead of the 2026 elections. By evaluating the associated risks and prospects, we aim to illuminate realistic and inclusive pathways for Somalia’s democratic transition.
Historically, Somalia’s political milieu has been shaped by indirect electoral processes entrenched in clan-based power-sharing dynamics. Initially conceived as temporary measures to stabilize governance post-civil war, these systems have lingered, now facing staunch criticism for perpetuating corruption and marginalizing minority groups. Despite gradual strides toward transparent governance structures, current actions by the administration pose risks of undermining these hard-won advances.
Electoral Scenarios for 2026
The envisioned shift to a 1P1V electoral system serves as a watershed moment. However, monumental hurdles impede its realization:
- Security Challenges: The ongoing insecurity, particularly in the outskirts of the capital, casts a long shadow over any attempt at nationwide electoral processes.
- Institutional Capacity: The long-standing conflict has eroded Somalia’s institutional framework. Key entities necessary for administering credible elections remain underdeveloped or dysfunctional.
- Infrastructure Deficits: The absence of foundational judicial and electoral systems—like comprehensive voter registration initiatives and logistical frameworks—seriously hinders the feasibility of direct elections. Without significant investment in building an administrative capacity, the prospect of enacting a one-person, one-vote system feels extremely daunting.
Given these tremendous challenges, the 1P1V model, while appealing in theory, appears impractical under the prevailing conditions.
Constrained Voter Model
This intermediate approach proposes to conduct parliamentary elections in select representative cities across each member state. The aim here? To foster public engagement and ensure accountability while mitigating the risks tied to broader electoral mechanisms. Yet, this model, too, faces substantial obstacles:
- Federal-State Relations: Tension between the federal government and specific member states undermines the collaborative essence necessary for this model’s success.
- Infrastructure and Logistics: Developing the requisite infrastructure and logistical support in selected cities remains a formidable task.
While the constrained voter model represents a more feasible alternative to universal suffrage, its success hinges on improved federal-state cooperation and investment in infrastructure.
Traditional Clan-Based Model
Under this existing framework, parliamentary members are chosen by clan electors designated by traditional leaders. Although this model is subject to corruption and can be exclusionary, it remains the most practical option within the current political climate.
Presidential Term Extension
Amid ongoing electoral hurdles, apprehensions rise that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud may attempt a term extension through parliamentary approval. Given the dysfunctionality within Parliament, such an extension could be granted, further complicating the fragile state of governance.
This scenario presents the most significant risks. The president is currently unpopular, facing mounting calls—over 100 members of Parliament have openly demanded his resignation—citing failures in national security and governance. Opposition leaders staunchly condemn any moves toward a term extension, branding them unconstitutional and a threat to the frail democratic fabric of Somalia.
The Way Forward
Among the potential electoral models, two stand out as more feasible: the traditional clan-based model and the constrained voter (CV) model. The CV model promises to expand representation beyond the elite circle of clan elders, fostering greater inclusivity and accountability.
However, implementing the CV model faces its unique challenges. The fractious relationship between the federal government and several member states, including Northeastern State and Jubbaland, has led to a breakdown in cooperation. Notably, neither Northeastern State nor Jubbaland participated in the recent National Consultative meeting in Mogadishu, a significant setback for collaborative federal planning. Some regional leaders may choose to pursue their electoral ambitions independently, which dilutes their incentive to engage effectively in a federal electoral process.
Conclusions
Each of the scenarios discussed remains largely speculative, yet some elements offer a more tangible path forward. Despite President Mohamud’s insistence, the reality is that a nationwide one-person-one-vote election is currently unattainable, given the existing security landscape and institutional constraints. Hence, the constrained-voter (CV) model appears to be the most viable compromise, allowing for broader participation beyond traditional clan-based systems, even if it faces substantial challenges. If elections proceed as scheduled, candidates who have access to critical information and superior organizational capabilities will greatly enhance their chances. Empirical evidence suggests that inclusive electorates yield more legitimate and accepted outcomes, fostering government officials who prioritize national interests. Given the incumbent’s eroded trust—clouded by allegations of corruption—it seems highly plausible that Somalia will welcome a new president in 2026.
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
