Somalia’s Political Landscape: A Deep Dive into Electoral Delays and Strategic Concerns

MOGADISHU, Somalia — In the heart of Mogadishu, the political pulse is racing. Despite strong backing from the United States, there’s tension brewing with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Washington has expressed concerns, pointing fingers at his insistence on holding universal suffrage elections. But why, one might wonder, is this such a contentious issue?

As reported by the Washington Post, Mohamud’s push for universal suffrage is perceived as a maneuver to delay elections, potentially extending his term. The stakes are high. This political chess game has ruffled feathers, not just in Somalia, but internationally. Among the dissatisfied are regional leaders like Said Abdullahi Deni of Northeastern State and Ahmed Islam Mohamed Madobe of Jubaland, who feel alienated by these developments.

Interestingly, electoral cycles often disrupt operations against al-Shabaab, a group adept at exploiting clan divisions and political uncertainty. In the past, U.S. efforts have mitigated these clashes. Reflecting on these dynamics, former U.S. ambassador Larry Andre once shared an anecdote: “Things always start great with a new president, and then clan politics makes it all fall apart.” He fondly remembers coordinating outfits with the beleaguered prime minister in 2022, their matching sky-blue running suits symbolizing a temporary unity. But can unity endure in such turbulent times?

Hussein Sheikh Ali, the national security advisor, emphasized, “The US is a crucial security partner. Their withdrawal would be a severe setback in our fight against Al-Shabaab.” This sentiment underscores the complexity of international alliances.

The situation becomes more intricate as the U.S. considers defunding the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). The African Union has already begun withdrawing troops. However, contributing countries argue for increased troop numbers to manage logistics effectively. Where does that leave Somalia’s security framework?

“On areas of counterterrorism, [the Americans] are our lead partner,” Ali reiterated. Recent collaborations have seen Somalia employing Interpol’s watch list data under a new director general of immigration, enhancing security measures, especially for international flights. But are these efforts enough?

However, American officials have expressed disappointment over Mohamud’s lack of progress in fostering regional inclusion and strengthening security cooperation. A compelling quote from a White House official reveals, “His emphasis on centralizing power is hindering progress on counterterrorism, and we believe a shift in priorities is essential to address the escalating threat.” This statement prompts reflection: Should leadership focus more on decentralization to foster unity?

In a troubling sign, the U.S. has scaled back support for the Danab Special Forces, impacting troop morale. Al-Shabaab has subsequently gained a foothold in central and southern regions, alarming observers. A previous U.S. government audit uncovered instances of inflated food and fuel requisitions within Danab, leading to the cessation of these supports in early 2024 and 2025 respectively. Stipends, which bolstered Danab members’ salaries, were also stopped. Such moves prompt questions: Are these financial cuts driven by allegations of graft, or are they part of a broader strategic shift?

Divergent views exist among former U.S. officials. Some argue that international security funding perpetuates corruption, while others maintain that funding a select, capable unit alongside U.S. soldiers is pragmatic. A former senior U.S. military official commented, “If we don’t directly sustain the Danab, the Somali National Army is highly unlikely to sustain them to the degree required for them to be most effective.” These insights highlight the dilemma at hand: Should international support be conditioned or unconditional?

Morale among Danab forces remains low. A Mogadishu-based security expert noted that when stipends were halted, approximately 100 soldiers went AWOL temporarily. The absence of foreign mentors further compounded these challenges. Does this signal a need for re-evaluation of motivational strategies within the forces?

As Somalia navigates these complex political waters, the path forward remains uncertain. The world watches closely as leaders make pivotal decisions that will shape the nation’s future. Timely reflections, commitments to inclusive governance, and strategic partnerships may well be key to overcoming these hurdles.