When President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud took office again in 2022, a wave of optimism swept through Somalia. Hopes soared, anticipating a significant revival.
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His second term was greeted with immense national and international support, embodied by his campaign mantra: “peace at home and with the world.” Among his achievements were securing $4.5 billion in debt relief, lifting a longstanding UN arms embargo, and leading Somalia into the East African Community (EAC).
The President also championed an extraordinary, community-driven assault on al-Shabaab, recovering vast lands in central Somalia. This marked a turning point as clans, under the Ma’awisley banner, voluntarily supported the offensive. Women prepared meals for young men now bravely challenging Al-Shabaab. Territories long under militant control were reclaimed by the Somali National Army and Ma’awisley militia. Hope rekindled as the phrase “Somali-led-Somali-owned” gained newfound resonance. Notably, government ministers and lawmakers joined the fight, and President Mohamud stationed himself in Dhusamareb to personally oversee military operations. His unkempt beard even made headlines, symbolizing a leader too engrossed in national affairs to worry about personal grooming.
Yet, this initial fervor and unity soon dissipated. The President returned to Mogadishu, engaging in the familiar political games that characterize Somali politics. Gradually, priorities shifted from warfare to political maneuvering.
Rift with Federal Member States
A major decision was made to amend the Provisional Constitution through parliament, largely under his influence. This move sparked a political crisis, notably with Jubaland and Puntland, two key Federal Member States. The proposed shift from a parliamentary to a presidential system, alongside the introduction of a first-past-the-post voting system, was a step away from clan-based governance. While welcomed by some, the lack of inclusive dialogue was glaring. By March 2024, Puntland had suspended its recognition of the federal government over this exclusion from the constitutional review process.
Matters with Jubaland worsened. In December 2024, the Somali National Army (SNA) launched an offensive in Ras Kamboni, targeting Jubaland’s President Ahmed Madobe. The campaign failed dramatically, with over 250 SNA soldiers surrendering and 600 seeking refuge in Kenya, only to be disarmed by Kenyan forces. This debacle drew harsh comparisons to the missteps of former President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmaajo,” whose centralization efforts had similarly faltered.
Critically, the funding for the SNA comes mostly from international sources, raising serious ethical questions about using these resources for internal political conflicts.
A War Half-Won, Now Losing Direction
The momentum in battling al-Shabaab, primarily propelled by Ma’awisley militias in Mudug, Galgadud, and Middle Shabelle, is stalling. Frustration grows as communities feel abandoned by a President now more focused on politics than on dismantling Al-Shabaab strongholds. Federal support has waned, diminishing the effectiveness of these local militias.
Meanwhile, al-Shabaab is regaining ground. Strategic losses like the recapture of Adan Yabal and substantial casualties in the SNA in April deal a heavy blow to the Federal Government—overshadowing past victories such as retaking the Middle Shabelle town of July 2022. Analysts argue that these setbacks stem from the President’s shift away from a concerted military focus toward political machinations.
Leadership changes within the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) and the SNA have further disrupted institutional stability and responsiveness.
Uncertainty Over AUSSOM’s Future
Amidst a lackluster campaign against Al-Shabaab by Somali forces, the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) faces precarious prospects due to erratic funding. Despite the pivotal preparatory period for a full transfer of responsibilities to the Somali Security Forces, funding fatigue threatens to leave a security vacuum, potentially benefiting al-Shabaab.
AUSSOM’s first year funding alone requires $166.5 million, but it confronts major financial shortfalls and inherited debt. Without robust international backing, further destabilization might ensue.
President Mohamud’s Options
Under intense public pressure and critique from opposition forces—recently gathering for a series of meetings—President Mohamud announced a national consultation forum for June 15. This assembly aims to unite federal and regional stakeholders, including FMS presidents, opposition leaders, and civil society. Though seen as a positive initiative, its timing raises doubts, coming amid the President’s bid for re-election in May 2026 under the Justice and Solidarity Party (JSP).
To rebuild trust, the President must genuinely engage all parties, especially former adversaries like Jubaland and Puntland. There’s a pressing need to foster open dialogue on contentious issues such as electoral models and constitutional amendments.
Strengthening the security sector and resuming committed military operations is equally critical. If re-engaging in the battlefield will turn the tide, the President must prioritize this. Forces at both national and regional levels, including the Ma’awisley, need his unwavering attention. Recognizing Puntland’s commendable efforts in counterterrorism, particularly against ISIS, could pave the way for constructive engagement with its leadership and reinforce unity.
The National Leadership Forum, pivotal during the President’s previous term, should be revived with urgency. This necessitates genuine outreach to leaders like President Abdullahi Deni and Ahmed Madobe, emphasizing inclusive dialogue. Only by rallying all FMS leaders can Somalia stride toward enduring peace and prosperity.
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International–Monitoring
Abdirahman Yusuf Ali is a social and peace activist, founder of Uistaag Dadka iyo Dalka, researcher, and writer. Former Youth Development Advisor at Federal Ministry of Youth and Sports and Federal Member State.
Organization: Uistaag Dadka iyo Dalka
Email: info@uistaag.com
