The ruling party in Georgia appears poised to outpace the pro-Western opposition in a highly scrutinized legislative election, as reflected by initial results that suggest a setback for the Caucasus nation’s ambitions to join the European Union.
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This crucial election in Georgia, nestled south of Russia, has been characterized by analysts as a pivotal moment that could steer the country towards either a European future or foster closer ties with Russia.
With approximately 70% of precincts reporting their tallies, the central election commission announced that the Georgian Dream party was in the lead, capturing 53% of the votes, while the opposition coalition trailed with 38.28%.
Mamuka Mdinaradze, the executive secretary of the ruling party, confidently declared to reporters, “Georgian Dream has achieved a substantial majority” in the newly elected parliament.
Rival exit polls released post-voting from this nation of four million indicated a split victory, with both the ruling party and opposition front-runners each claiming success.
For more context, it’s crucial to understand what’s at stake in Georgia’s election amid a backdrop of geopolitical currents.
President Salome Zurabishvili, known for her pro-opposition stance, celebrated a win for “European Georgia” following one exit poll that placed the opposition in the lead.
In a show of support for Georgian Dream, Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban took to social media congratulating them on what he termed an “overwhelming victory” based on a poll indicating the government’s success.
Amidst the swirling discourse, both parties precariously asserted claim to victory, fueled by contradictory exit polls.
The leader of the opposition United National Movement, Tina Bokuchava, voiced concerns post-poll, asserting that “the ruling Georgian Dream party has actually lost this crucial parliamentary election and should now concede.”
Bokuchava rebuked Georgian Dream’s declaration of victory, which leaned on a pro-government station’s exit poll, while the opposition cited their own, signaling a standstill in the narrative.
Brief aside: Georgians residing in Ireland also cast their votes during this consequential election.
Ms. Bokuchava stated, “Most folks will likely take Bidzina Ivanishvili’s claims of a government majority with a giant grain of salt.” She continued, “We await the final official results, but losers should graciously admit defeat and step aside.”
Interestingly, one poll suggested that the ruling party—which has increasingly adopted pro-Russian tones—was on track for an easy victory, while two other polls hinted that the pro-Western opposition could form a majority.
An exit poll from the Imedi TV channel, aligned with Georgian Dream, indicated a solid 56% win for the ruling party.
Conversely, exit polls from opposition-affiliated channels, Formula and Mtavari Arkhi, pointed towards impressive gains for the pro-Western factions, suggesting collaboration could yield a majority in the 150-seat assembly.
This election has seen Bidzina Ivanishvili, the enigmatic billionaire founder of Georgian Dream and former prime minister, asserting victory. Shortly after the polls closed, Ivanishvili remarked, “It’s a rare occurrence for the same party to achieve such success in these challenging circumstances – a testament to the resilience of the Georgian spirit.”
“I assure you, our nation is destined for significant accomplishments in the next four years,” he added confidently.
The ballot cast today stands as a hallmark in deciding whether Georgia remains tethered to its current pro-Russian administration or takes the leap towards EU membership.
Since coming to power in 2012, Georgian Dream has gradually shifted in recent years toward a pro-Russian narrative, drawing criticism from Western allies who perceive a growing authoritarian drift.
Salome Zourabichvili, the president with a history of aligning and later opposing the ruling party, alongside independent local election monitors, have accused Georgian Dream of engaging in extensive vote-buying and various other electoral malpractice prior to the election.
Upon request, the ruling party refrained from commenting on these allegations.
In recent days, pro-European demonstrations filled the streets of Georgia, a clear indication of the citizens’ sentiments.
“European Georgia is indeed prevailing with 52%, despite attempts to manipulate the elections and the absence of votes from our diaspora,” Ms. Zourabichvili asserted via X.
According to the Formula exit poll, although Georgian Dream is projected to be the largest single party, it is suggested that the four primary opposition factions could altogether hold 83 seats.
An important dynamic to note is the significant fragmentation among Georgia’s four main opposition blocs, raising questions about their ability to collaborate effectively if they deny Georgian Dream a ruling majority.
