Complex Dynamics in the Horn of Africa: A Closer Look

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia – A new chapter unfolds in the thorny geopolitics of the Horn of Africa as Ethiopia’s top military head raises the alarm over the presence of Egyptian forces in Somalia. Could this signal a shift in regional dynamics?

During a focused session with Ethiopian lawmakers, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, Chief of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), expressed significant concerns about foreign military deployments in Somalia. He highlighted how, under the guise of alliances, these deployments might jeopardize stability in the region: “The threat is real. There are foreign forces inside Somalia whose strategic intent raises serious concerns for Ethiopia’s stability.”

Berhanu’s pointed comments, though not explicitly naming Egypt, follow in the wake of reports that Egypt has brokered a military pact with the Somali government. This agreement, inked in August 2024, grants Egypt the authority to dispatch up to 10,000 troops to Somalia. Half of these forces would operate under the African Union’s stabilization mission (AUSSOM), while the remainder would function under a distinct bilateral arrangement.

“Understanding the motives of foreign forces is crucial. What are the broader implications for regional security?”

Beyond troop deployment, the pact includes clauses for weapons transfers. In a region already fraught with land and maritime disputes, Berhanu warned of efforts aimed at restricting Ethiopia’s access to the sea—a lifeline for its economic aspirations.

“We are ready to solve the region’s problems together,” he affirmed, “but some forces are determined to obstruct Ethiopia from reaching the sea gate.”

Given these complexities, Ethiopian troops remain actively involved in Somalia under both a broader African Union initiative and specific bilateral agreements. Yet, the burgeoning Egyptian influence is perceived as a potential maneuver to encircle Ethiopia—a nation already in a strategic dance with Cairo over the contentious Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile.

A Crossroads for Regional Cooperation

The GERD has long been a bone of contention. Ethiopia views it as a cornerstone for national development, while Egypt sees it as a direct threat to its water security. This backdrop intensifies the scrutiny over the Egypt-Somalia pact.

“Our presence in Somalia has always been about supporting peace and counterterrorism,” Berhanu reassured policymakers, emphasizing the evolving nature of national interests in Somalia. Although he refrained from revealing the precise number of Ethiopian troops on the ground, he acknowledged that defense officials are rethinking strategic alignments, especially in light of threats like Al-Shabaab.

Conversely, Somali leaders stand by the Egypt-Somalia military collaboration, defending it as a move to rebuild the Somali National Army and bolster regional safety.

Diplomatic Maneuvers and Controversies

In an interesting twist, Ethiopia recently inked a controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with North Western State of Somalia in January 2024, securing access to a segment of the Red Sea coast. This move, lauded by North Western State of Somalia as a step towards recognition, was swiftly condemned by the Somali federal government. They recalled their ambassador and nullified the agreement, citing sovereignty violations.

The heated relations lingered through 2024, gradually cooling only after Turkish-brokered negotiations in late 2024. Both nations tentatively agreed to explore future maritime cooperation—a diplomatic milestone, yet a fragile one.

As Ethiopia holds onto its North Western State of Somalia agreement, the pact’s legitimacy remains contested, with North Western State of Somalia claiming its validity.

Looking ahead, North Western State of Somalia officials disclosed plans for President Abdirahman Irro to visit Addis Ababa for discussions with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed regarding the MoU. Ethiopian authorities maintain that while the MoU awaits finalization, their commitment to diplomatic maritime solutions is unwavering.

In these complex and interlinked affairs, one might ponder: How will this patchwork of alliances and tensions shape the future of the Horn of Africa?

Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International–Monitoring