Back in 2020, Joe Biden clinched victory in Wisconsin by a slender margin of just 22,000 votes. This razor-thin margin is precisely why the Republican Party chose this battleground for its convention in July, aiming to leverage the limelight that such a large-scale national event brings to a city that’s about the size of Dublin.
Interestingly, the Fiserv Centre, where the RNC was held, has a capacity roughly identical to the tight vote margin in that pivotal election—22,000—in a state where an impressive 3.2 million people cast their ballots.
Just yesterday, Kamala Harris made her sixth trip to Wisconsin, participating in a rally at the same Fiserv Centre during the Democratic National Convention held in Chicago not too far away.
In a race where every single vote holds monumental significance, turnout is of utmost importance in this Blue Wall State—one of the seven crucial battlegrounds that will ultimately shape the outcome of next month’s presidential showdown.
Kamala Harris at a campaign rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, yesterday.
In the 2020 election, Biden garnered 49.45% of the votes, while Donald Trump captured 48.82%. Fast forward to today; an Emerson College poll partnered with “The Hill” shows Harris trailing slightly at 48.7%, with Trump holding a narrow lead at 49.3%, a mere 0.6% difference within a margin of error of 3.5%.
The implication? Harris really needs to widen the gap in the polling numbers if she aims to replicate Biden’s narrow victory from four years ago. This is especially true if the polls continue to downplay Trump’s support, as they did in the past elections of 2016 and 2020.
So what’s causing the vice president’s campaign to stall?
Outside the University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee, a crowd of pro-Palestinian protesters greeted Kamala Harris with jeers upon her arrival for a campaign event. Among these protesters was Isiah Martin, fired up by the U.S. support for the ongoing conflict, yet still determined to cast his vote for Harris.
“Absolutely, I think most Black men will fall in line with voting for her. However, we need to keep the pressure on her for real change. True systemic change is non-negotiable,” he insisted.
He went on, “Discussions around reparations are crucial. We can get there, but I’m unsure if it’s going to be Kamala or someone else leading the charge.”
“It’s mind-boggling to think about the possibility of me or my community facing a new form of oppression because I chose to support that man,” he emphasized, referring to Trump.
Inside, Harris made remarks regarding the death of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, addressing the cameras with an air of authority but dodging questions from the press. It was an opportunity to showcase her presidential demeanor during a time of global turbulence.
The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by Israeli forces in Gaza has triggered debate, but Wisconsinites don’t seem to be swayed much by foreign policy matters. The Emerson College poll revealed only 0.4% of respondents viewed it as the most pressing issue in this election—42.6% pointed to the economy, 11.4% to threats against democracy, and 8.9% highlighted reproductive rights and abortion.
However, the university district represents just one facet of the diverse tapestry of North Milwaukee, which spans from lakefront luxury condos to economically challenged neighborhoods. This region could be pivotal in determining the electoral outcome in the state.
“A very high turnout election”
At a Democratic Party campaign office along West Lisbon Avenue, I connected with Mark Ribbing, a volunteer from St. Louis, Missouri. His aim: to assist in this critical electoral fight.
“There’s a palpable excitement, not just in Wisconsin but across the whole nation, about early voting,” he conveyed, noting a strong interest in securing ballots well ahead of Election Day. “People are anticipating a markedly high turnout, which has them eager to ensure their voices are heard.”
Intrigued, I asked him if he encountered resistance while canvassing door-to-door.
“It’s a swing area; naturally, you’ll run into supporters of the opposing party. That’s simply the nature of democracy,” he acknowledged.
“Overall, even those who support Trump are fairly civil, but the neighborhoods we’ve covered lean strongly in favor of Ms. Harris and Governor Walz.”
“So far, I’ve focused my efforts in urban Milwaukee, a city rich in diversity,” he added. “I’ve visited all sorts of households, from affluent areas to more modest ones. It’s imperative that we rally everyone, regardless of background, to make their voices heard on election day.”
North Milwaukee houses the largest concentration of Black voters in the state. Attending an event hosted by Capital B—a Black-oriented news channel—focused on the involvement of Black voters, I encountered Malaika Jabali, an insightful journalist authoring a book about the Black vote in vital swing states like Wisconsin.
“Every swing state has its unique circumstances. States like Michigan and Pennsylvania, alongside Florida and Georgia, contain significant Black populations. In those locales, you’ll find voters who have switched allegiance, swaying between Trump and Obama,” she explained.
“For many Black voters, however, the burning question remains: Have these political parties genuinely addressed our community’s needs? Wisconsin, similar to the industrial landscape of Michigan, reflects this concern.
“Many feel disconnected from where their votes are landing, naturally cultivating skepticism about the electoral process. Yet this year offers something distinct. You have a groundbreaking candidate like Barack Obama, which drove Black voter turnout to around 78% in Wisconsin during 2012. Though voters may feel disillusioned, they might galvanize support for a historic candidate.”
As for Kamala Harris’s chances? “That remains to be seen. Preliminary discussions I’ve had suggest an underlying excitement that could provide a significant boost for the Democrats,” she reflected.
We delved into Barack Obama’s recent critique, where he suggested that some Black men were hesitant to support Harris due to their sexism.
“I’ve encountered numerous enthusiastic Black voters, especially Black men, backing Kamala Harris. Statistically, they form a solid demographic that supports the Democratic ticket—about 78%, in fact. Sure, differences will emerge between how Black men and women vote, but it’s possible that some might even see Trump as a more favorable option.”
“That could be driven by business aspirations or simply a preference for his charisma. Yet, I believe the concern surrounding sexism in this context is exaggerated. The Black men I’ve spoken with, many of whom are actively campaigning for Harris, exude excitement,” she said.
“To generalize this sentiment overlooks legitimate worries that both Black men and women—across generations—hold about the Democratic Party as a whole.”
Meanwhile, Erik Ngutse, a full-time Republican official in Wisconsin, offered a different perspective. “Obama’s commentary seemed ill-timed. Many Black men resonate with Trump despite all the legal turmoil surrounding him. They see parallels between what’s happening to Trump and their own experiences with the justice system,” he reasoned.
“There’s a sense of victory in Trump’s resilience and many admire that. Conversely, seeing Kamala’s history of imprisoning African American men—sometimes even after exonerations—leaves a sour taste among those in the know,” he said, asserting that Obama’s words likely fell flat, as they came off as dismissive to a demographic that often feels overlooked until it’s election time.
But how will this dynamic influence turnout within the Black community?
“Honestly, I suspect turnout might be tepid due to Democrats’ candidate choices. Since my community generally leans Democratic, I envision lower-than-expected turnout for a pivotal election such as this one,” he predicted. “However, there may be a surging turnout among Black Republicans and independents.”
Corinne Rosen, representing the Working Families Party of Milwaukee, rallied support for Kamala Harris citing pressing matters centered on the rising cost of living. Families are struggling to make ends meet, often forced into precarious situations of juggling multiple jobs just to survive.
“People are wrestling with real burdens right now, in terms of pocketbook issues. At a recent event with Bernie Sanders, a woman passionately discussed how exorbitant dental care costs must be addressed, especially under Medicaid for seniors,” she noted.
“These aren’t long-term challenges; they’re daily struggles demanding immediate attention. We are in pursuit of a country that uplifts every citizen.”
The skyrocketing cost of living is viewed as a sizable vulnerability for Democrats in this election cycle—and particularly for Kamala Harris. I probed Corinne: are voters expressing that basic needs must come first?
“We’re not hearing the ‘but I have to eat’ argument,” she clarified. “Instead, many express their ambition to back Harris but acknowledge their financial struggles. They’re working tirelessly—sometimes juggling two or three jobs—just to scrape by.”
“These struggles arise from insidious greed rampant in our society,” she asserted. “People are fed up. They’re clocking in daily at minimum wage yet still struggle to cover basic expenses like rent. It’s an ongoing crisis that demands resolution.”
“Just two days ago, I chatted with a family, and we talked about the bare minimum—everyone should be able to work one job and enjoy life, like taking a family vacation. That shouldn’t feel like such a far-fetched dream.”
Ultimately, the outcome of this race hinges on voter turnout, whether it occurs on November 5th or through early in-person or mail-in ballots. It boils down to which side can mobilize the most supporters. While this may appear straightforward, Wisconsin is on track to present a nail-biter on election night.
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Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring
