Succession Struggle: What’s Next for the Jalisco New Generation Cartel?

CJNG leader ‘El Mencho’ killed in raid; unrest erupts across Mexico as succession fight looms

Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, the elusive boss of Mexico’s Jalisco New Generation Cartel, died in custody after an early-morning shootout with Mexican special forces, authorities said, in an operation aided by U.S. intelligence. The capture and killing of the crime boss, known as “El Mencho,” was hailed as a major breakthrough in Mexico’s long war with drug gangs. U.S. officials have accused the CJNG of trafficking cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine and fentanyl into the United States and have labeled the group a terrorist organization.

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The death of El Mencho set off a rapid, violent backlash. Supporters mounted coordinated shows of force across 20 Mexican states on Sunday, launching arson attacks, striking government buildings, erecting roadblocks and engineering a prison break, according to local reports. Security officials warned more unrest could follow as rivals and lieutenants maneuver for control of one of the world’s most powerful and violent criminal syndicates.

Succession inside CJNG is uncertain. The cartel lacks a clear family heir: El Mencho’s son, Rubén Oseguera González (“El Menchito”), was extradited to the United States in 2020; his wife was arrested in 2021 on money-laundering charges; and two brothers are in Mexican prisons. Mexico-based security analyst David Saucedo said El Mencho, weakened by kidney disease that required dialysis, had already delegated power to a council of regional commanders to run day-to-day operations.

“El Mencho had created a council of commanders to delegate many of the cartel’s important leadership functions,” Saucedo told RTÉ News. The body represents four regions of CJNG’s vast narco-empire and, for now, appears united by what it sees as an external threat from government crackdowns and circling adversaries. One of those commanders, Juan Carlos Valencia, known as “El 03” and El Mencho’s stepson, has been tipped as a possible successor, though some see him as too young and inexperienced to consolidate power.

Founded in 2009–2010, CJNG has grown into a sprawling enterprise with an estimated 15,000 to 20,000 members operating across as many as 100 countries, according to U.S. government assessments. Its reputation for brutality is central to its power: the cartel has staged public executions and displayed bodies, with beheadings and dismemberment among its documented methods, U.S. intelligence has reported. News organizations have also reported allegations of cannibalism in initiation rites for recruits.

The cartel’s footprint is deepest in its home state of Jalisco, where homicides, disappearances and mass graves surged as CJNG expanded, according to InSight Crime, a nonprofit research group. In 2015, the group killed two dozen police in western Mexico in a warning to authorities and shot down a Mexican military helicopter with a rocket-propelled grenade, killing nine soldiers. Its business model stretches beyond narcotics into extortion, fuel theft, kidnapping, illegal logging and mining, migrant smuggling and timeshare fraud; it has also been linked to the extortion of avocado producers in Michoacán.

The immediate security fallout now intersects with global sport. Guadalajara, the capital of Jalisco and a historic CJNG hub, saw some of the fiercest unrest after El Mencho’s killing. If the Republic of Ireland qualifies, it is scheduled to play a World Cup match in the city on June 11. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has offered “full guarantees” for fan safety and said there is “no risk” to visitors, while FIFA president Gianni Infantino expressed full confidence in Mexico as a host.

Analysts caution, however, that Guadalajara’s flare-ups are part of a longstanding pattern: the city has been brought to a standstill during past security operations against CJNG, including in 2011, 2012 and 2015, with an alleged daytime gun battle again late last year. InSight Crime says the city remains a home base for CJNG rank-and-file, offering a dynamic economy to launder illicit proceeds and a highway network linking production zones with Pacific ports and the U.S. border. The U.S. Treasury has sanctioned dozens of Guadalajara-based businesses over two decades for cartel ties.

Travel advisories reflect the risk. Ireland advises against non-essential travel to Jalisco state, with an exemption for Guadalajara for those arriving by air and remaining in the city, and urges a high degree of caution nationwide given persistent drug-related violence. Tourists are rarely targeted, the advisory notes, but bystanders can be caught up in criminal incidents.

By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.