Russian President Vladimir Putin’s pledge to maintain “uninterrupted shipments” of fuel to India crystallized the central dilemma at the heart of his state visit to New Delhi: energy security versus geopolitical cost. At a summit dominated by energy, defence and trade, President Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought to translate decades-old ties into concrete guarantees even as the United States applies heavy pressure — including 50% tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump — to penalize New Delhi for continued purchases of Russian oil.
The visit underscored how deeply intertwined India-Russia oil trade has become since the war in Ukraine. In 2024, Russia supplied nearly 36% of India’s crude imports — roughly 1.8 million discounted barrels a day — making New Delhi a major market as European buyers sharply reduced purchases. Putin’s explicit offer of steady fuel flows was intended to reassure an economy still hungry for cheap crude even as India has started to pare shipments under diplomatic pressure.
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But the energy lifeline comes with strategic strings. The New Delhi summit produced a raft of agreements — a new economic cooperation program through 2030 and deals spanning jobs, health, shipping and chemicals — and highlighted defence cooperation that has long bound the two countries. Bilateral trade rose to $68.7 billion in 2024-25, yet Indian exports account for only a small slice of that total, about $4.88 billion, underscoring a persistent trade asymmetry that complicates the relationship.
India’s balancing act is both pragmatic and perilous. “Balancing acts are second nature to Indian foreign policymaking,” wrote Pankaj Saran, a former Indian ambassador to Russia. New Delhi has tried to keep Moscow close for historical, defence and energy reasons while avoiding a frontal clash with Washington at a time of sharp tariff negotiations. Analysts say the tariffs have inflicted economic pain and sharpened New Delhi’s urgency to diversify trade partners and suppliers.
That urgency shows in the shifting anatomy of India’s defence procurement. Russia’s share of India’s arms imports fell from 76% in 2009-13 to 36% in 2019-23, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. New Delhi is courting alternative suppliers and accelerating domestic production — yet complex platforms such as fighter jets and submarines still bind Indian planners to decades of Russian systems, spare parts and training ties.
For Modi, the summit served multiple domestic and diplomatic purposes. Addressing Putin as “my friend,” Modi highlighted energy and nuclear cooperation and framed the visit as an exercise in diversification, not dependence. “We have agreed on an economic cooperation program until 2030,” Modi said, emphasizing a desire to make trade “diversified, balanced and sustainable.” His government is trying to signal to Washington that India’s ties with Russia are not a challenge to its strategic alignment with the United States, even as Washington frames continued oil purchases as indirectly financing Moscow’s war effort.
That diplomatic tightrope is complicated by raw economics. Discounted Russian barrels have helped lower fuel costs in India and cushioned its energy bill even as global prices gyrated. Cutting off Russian crude would force New Delhi to seek alternatives at potentially higher cost or to accelerate fuel substitution — both politically fraught choices for a government mindful of inflation, domestic growth and electoral calculations.
Putin’s public assurances about “possible peaceful settlement” efforts in Ukraine and his offer to share details of talks with partners, including the United States, appeared aimed at softening perceptions that Russian-Indian ties are purely transactional. Still, the optics of a state banquet, a red-carpet welcome and a 21-gun salute for Putin on his first visit since the invasion of Ukraine underscored how New Delhi values its long-standing relationship with Moscow.
Strategically, the relationship remains a pivot point. For Moscow, India represents a crucial market and partner that can blunt the economic isolation stemming from Western sanctions. For New Delhi, Russia remains indispensable for defence platforms, nuclear cooperation and as a reliable — if politically sensitive — source of energy. Yet the asymmetry in trade and the growing influence of Washington mean that India’s policy calculus will increasingly factor in potential economic penalties and diplomatic fallout.
Looking ahead, several scenarios are plausible. New Delhi could continue a calibrated approach: maintain discounted Russian oil purchases while incrementally diversifying suppliers and deepening economic ties with other partners to blunt U.S. pressure. It could seek negotiated exemptions or concessions with Washington to lift tariffs in exchange for measured reductions in Russian crude. Or India could prioritize affordable energy and preserve a close Russia relationship, risking prolonged economic friction with the United States.
What is clear is that the Modi government sees this week’s summit not simply as a ritual of alliance but as an instrument of strategy. The 2030 cooperation program and the diplomatic choreography around the visit were meant to broaden the relationship beyond oil, signaling that ties with Russia are multifaceted and enduring. But the calculus in New Delhi will be defined by competing imperatives: securing fuel for a fast-growing economy, safeguarding domestic political stability, and managing an increasingly consequential relationship with Washington.
Until those imperatives are reconciled, India’s foreign policy will remain the art of the possible — a continuous attempt to extract strategic advantage while minimizing the costs of closely held partnerships in an era of renewed great-power friction.
By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
