Tomorrow, Polish voters will head to the polls for a pivotal second-round election, where they will decide between centrist candidate Rafal Trzaskowski and conservative contender Karol Nawrocki. This contest has captured the attention of the nation, especially after two weeks of intense campaigning.
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The showdown features candidates from Poland’s most prominent political factions: the centre-right Civic Platform and the nationalist-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party. As political analysts note, “A close race was always on the cards,” given the long-standing rivalry between these two parties, which have dominated Polish politics for over two decades.
Recent polls indicate a near tie, with both candidates hovering around 47%, underscoring the likelihood of a very close outcome.
The stakes are high, especially for the outgoing President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, who has vetoed numerous bills passed by Donald Tusk’s coalition government. These vetoes have obstructed efforts to reverse significant judicial changes made during PiS’s tenure from 2015 to 2023. As the political landscape evolves, many left, liberal, and centrist voters apprehend that a Nawrocki presidency would perpetuate the status quo, if not worsen their current situation.
Notably, Rafal Trzaskowski, the centrist mayor of Warsaw, narrowly lost the last presidential election in 2020. While the president’s role is largely ceremonial, he holds the power to veto parliamentary bills. A simple majority of 60% in parliament can override a veto, but Mr. Tusk’s government is currently underrepresented in that regard.
Beyond this, the president serves as the commander-in-chief of Poland’s armed forces, overseeing security and defense policies—an influential position, indeed. As Andrzej Bobinski, managing director of Polityka Insight, insightfully observes, “The campaign has been ‘99% ideological and maybe 1% issue-based,'” highlighting the intense focus on overarching political philosophies rather than specific issues.
Throughout the campaign, Mr. Trzaskowski has emerged as a frontrunner, but his lead has dwindled significantly as he gears efforts towards mobilizing younger voters and those disillusioned by the ruling coalition’s restrictions on abortion rights. “Women hardly believe that even with a President from the same political spectrum, anything will change,” shares Magdalena Jakubowska, vice-president of the Res Publica Foundation in Warsaw.
To counter this sentiment, Mr. Trzaskowski’s wife, Malgorzata Trzaskowska, has actively participated in rallies, advocating for her husband’s commitment to women’s rights. While he endorses the liberalization of abortion laws, he has strategically chosen not to prioritize this issue to retain support from conservative voters in smaller towns and rural areas.
On the other side of the aisle, Karol Nawrocki, currently the head of Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance, steps into the political arena with a background in history and social conservatism but lacks hands-on political experience. Despite running as an independent, he enjoys robust support from the PiS political machinery.
However, Mr. Nawrocki’s campaign has faced its share of controversies, including allegations concerning a real estate transaction involving an elderly man. He has steadfastly denied any wrongdoing, asserting that he has continued to support the former pensioner financially.
Although these controversies have raised eyebrows, Mr. Nawrocki has garnered substantial backing from PiS voters. “He needs to mobilize not only his base but also those to the right of Law and Justice,” remarks Mr. Bobinski, adding that Mr. Trzaskowski is strategizing to gather support against the PiS party’s resurgence.
Another significant trend in this race is the rise of far-right candidates, with 21% of voters opting for far-right choices in the first round. Notably, the popular Slawomir Mentzen, who received 15% of the vote, invited both candidates for discussions on his YouTube channel, aiming to understand their positions and rally support.
The debates generated considerable attention but may not decisively influence the final outcome. During the discussion, Mr. Nawrocki appeared somewhat lacking, while Mr. Trzaskowski’s more composed demeanor could resonate with libertarians among Mentzen’s backers. Their post-debate camaraderie, captured in social media clips, may also bolster votes for the Warsaw mayor.
Ultimately, Mentzen refrained from endorsing either candidate, which suggests he is looking to carve out a separate niche in Poland’s political landscape. However, far-right voters could still gravitate toward Mr. Nawrocki based on shared nationalist views.
As the election approaches, a lively public debate and massive rallies have intensified the contest, yet committed supporters of either candidate seem unlikely to switch allegiance. The focus may shift to younger voters who previously supported more radical, anti-establishment parties, potentially swaying the election’s outcome.
“A close result is anticipated, with possibly only 200,000 to 300,000 votes making all the difference,” predicts Ms. Jakubowska, encapsulating the tense atmosphere surrounding tomorrow’s vote.
In short, whichever way the wind blows, it appears that this election will be a nail-biter.
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International–Monitoring.
