A recent attack on tourists in the contested region of Kashmir has ignited a new crisis between the nuclear-armed neighbors, India and Pakistan.
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Dr. Jivanta Schottli, Assistant Professor in Indian Politics and Foreign Policy at Dublin City University, characterized the current diplomatic situation as “very tense”. She emphasized that the deliberate targeting of civilians rendered this attack particularly shocking for the nation.
This unfortunate incident unfolded in the scenic valley near the town of Pahalgam, often referred to as “little Switzerland.” Accounts from survivors indicate that the attackers specifically targeted Hindu tourists, a detail that has sent ripples of fear throughout the region. Dr. Schottli remarked, “The attack has shattered a growing sense of security in a place where the return of tourism had fostered economic stability and optimism in recent years.”
Emergency responders rushed an injured tourist to a hospital in Anantnag, situated south of Srinagar, following the attack.
In response, New Delhi claimed that the militants had “cross-border” affiliations, with some allegedly being Pakistani nationals. Pakistan, however, strongly denied any involvement, asserting that it had no knowledge of its citizens participating in the assault.
In a swift reaction, India revoked visas for Pakistani nationals, ordered their departure by week’s end, expelled military diplomats from Pakistan, and closed a significant border crossing.
Key Water Treaty at Risk
Furthermore, India announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, a crucial agreement brokered by the World Bank in the 1960s. Dr. Schottli noted, “This treaty is seen as one of the few successful agreements between India and Pakistan that managed to endure.” The treaty grants India control over the upstream flow of the Indus River and its tributaries, a geographical advantage that raises concerns in Pakistan about potential disruptions.
The suspension has ignited worry in Pakistan, where agriculture significantly relies on water from the Indus basin. Dr. Schottli framed this decision as both an ultimatum and a warning, stating, “Its impact won’t be immediate, since India lacks the infrastructure to divert the river’s flow as the treaty had barred dam construction on its side.” However, she characterized the action as “highly emotive,” suggesting that it serves as a demonstration of decisiveness by the Indian government, albeit largely symbolic.
This situation marks a troubling low in bilateral relations, which Dr. Schottli described as “tragic.” In statements to the BBC, Pakistan’s defense minister expressed that Islamabad would appeal to the World Bank, calling India’s suspension of the treaty a “declaration of war.”
Understanding Kashmir
The Kashmir region has been a contested area since the partition of India in 1947 and is divided by the Line of Control between the two nations, both of which lay claim to the predominantly Muslim region.
The Indian-administered territory of Jammu and Kashmir previously enjoyed special autonomous status under Article 370 of the constitution. This article allowed for certain privileges, including preventing Indian nationals from other states from purchasing land in the region—aimed at preserving the identity and demographic balance of the local population. However, in 2019, the Indian government abrogated this provision, prompting what Dr. Schottli described as widespread “resentment,” although she noted that post-attack economic prosperity, driven by tourism, initially brought a sense of optimism.
The Kashmir Resistance, a lesser-known group that claimed responsibility for the Pahalgam attack, is believed to be an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, as per the South Asia Terrorism Portal, a think tank based in Delhi.
Will India Respond Militarily?
India has a history of military retaliation in response to attacks in Kashmir and has pledged a “strong response” once again. Dr. Schottli referenced previous instances: “In 2016, following the killing of 18 Indian soldiers at a military base in Kashmir, India launched what it called ‘cross-border surgical strikes.’ In 2019, a suicide bombing in Pulwama claimed the lives of 40 Indian security personnel, leading India to conduct airstrikes on what it claimed was a militant training camp in Balakot, Pakistan.”
Currently, however, it’s uncertain whether military options are under serious discussion. Dr. Schottli suggested that Pakistan may be prepared for escalation and that “the element of surprise is now gone.” She noted that India could potentially rely on intelligence support from the United States or Israel. While New Delhi has provided little detail regarding possible military actions, Dr. Schottli anticipates an intensification of economic and diplomatic isolation, which could ultimately result in a “total breakdown” of relations between the two countries.
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International – Monitoring
