France and Italy are pushing to delay a final European Union vote on the Mercosur trade agreement, a last-minute intervention that threatens to derail a pact 25 years in the making and billed as the EU’s largest deal by tariff relief. The move comes days before European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is due in Brazil to sign the agreement with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, and amid heightened pressure on the bloc to show unity.
Supporters say the EU-Mercosur deal would diversify European trade away from reliance on China and help blunt the impact of tariff increases from U.S. President Donald Trump. Securing a resolution this month has been framed by some as a test of Europe’s ability to act cohesively after Trump accused EU leaders of being “weak,” even as they seek agreement on financing for Ukraine.
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Opponents, led by France and now joined by Italy, argue the accord gives too much away to Mercosur members and risks flooding European markets with cheaper South American commodities, intensifying pressure on EU farmers. Paris is lobbying to assemble a blocking minority and wants stronger, legally robust safeguards added to protect agriculture before any vote. On Monday, the French government said it would seek to postpone the approval vote to obtain “legitimate protections” for farmers.
The European Commission insists the deal should be signed by year’s end, calling it “crucially important—economically, diplomatically and geopolitically.” Denmark, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, must decide whether to press ahead with a vote this week as planned. But pressing ahead could backfire: a blocking minority requires at least four member states representing 35% of the EU population. Ireland, Poland, Hungary and Austria oppose Mercosur, and it is understood France would command a blocking minority if Denmark proceeds.
A broad majority of EU countries would need to back the accord to enable von der Leyen to sign. “If we don’t sign Mercosur in the next days it will be dead,” one EU diplomat cautioned. “If we can’t agree on Mercosur we don’t need to talk about European sovereignty anymore. We will make ourselves geopolitically irrelevant.”
The pact would open Latin America more widely to European vehicles, machinery, wines and spirits, while expanding access for South American beef, sugar, rice, honey and soybeans into Europe. Brussels has sought to address agricultural concerns with an autumn package of safeguards allowing preferential access to be suspended if import volumes rise by more than 10% or prices fall by 10% in one or more member states. France has branded those measures “incomplete.”
In a separate bid to reassure skeptical capitals, the European Parliament is set to vote tomorrow on the safeguard regime, already approved by member states and potentially still subject to tightening. The Commission last week also announced stricter checks on farm imports to enforce EU standards and pledged updated rules on pesticide residues to keep banned substances from entering via imports. “Any postponement is a very good signal,” Polish Agriculture Minister Stefan Krajewski said.
Domestic political pressure is intensifying. Up to 10,000 farmers are expected in Brussels to protest during an EU leaders’ summit on Thursday and Friday. Ireland’s foreign minister, Helen McEntee, said Dublin’s concerns center on the impact to beef producers and that the timing of any vote remains unclear.
Von der Leyen is due in the Brazilian city of Foz do Iguaçu on Saturday to sign the accord with Mercosur leaders. Even if that happens, the battle will not be over: the European Parliament must still give its final approval, likely early next year, in what officials expect will be a close vote heavily influenced by national interests.
For now, the deal’s fate hinges on whether Denmark forces a decision in the coming days—and whether France and Italy’s late push to delay can gather enough support to block it.
By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
