In a startling update, over 60 leading scientists have sounded the alarm on climate change, highlighting alarming trends in carbon pollution, sea-level rise, and global heating. “We are navigating uncharted territories,” they emphasize.
- Advertisement -
According to their peer-reviewed findings, greenhouse gas emissions linked to fossil fuel consumption and deforestation reached a staggering high in 2024, averaging an unprecedented 53.6 billion tonnes of CO2 annually over the past decade. To put this into perspective, that’s a monumental 100,000 tonnes every minute.
Last year marked a concerning milestone as Earth’s surface temperature surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time. Based on their calculations, the remaining CO2 emissions we can afford while maintaining a two-thirds chance of keeping below this crucial threshold—the so-called “1.5C carbon budget”—will be fully exhausted in just a couple of years.
While investment in clean energy surged ahead of fossil fuels—double the amount invested in oil, gas, and coal last year—it’s important to remember that fossil fuels still dominate global energy consumption, accounting for over 80%. Unfortunately, the growth in renewable energy sources has yet to catch up with escalating demand.
The international community, with nearly 200 nations agreeing, has set a hard cap on warming to remain “well below” two degrees Celsius, often interpreted as a limit of around 1.7C to 1.8C. This underscores the urgency of our current climate predicament.
As Joeri Rogelj, a climate science and policy professor at Imperial College London, put it, “We are already in crunch time for these higher levels of warming.” He further highlights that, “The next three to four decades will likely define when we observe a peak in warming.”
Equally concerning are the rapid shifts noted in various climate indicators. The study, published in Earth System Science Data, reveals that human-induced warming has accelerated in a manner that is “unprecedented in the instrumental record,” surpassing the averages reported by the UN’s most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in 2021.
These new findings, driven by the same scientists who authored the previous IPCC reports, serve as an unofficial yet authoritative reality check for policymakers. Piers Forster, the lead author and head of the University of Leeds Priestley Centre for Climate Futures, remarked, “I tend to be an optimistic person. But if you look at this year’s update, things are all moving in the wrong direction.”
Sea-level rise is another critical factor, with global oceans now increasing at a troubling rate of 4.3 mm annually since 2019—a significant jump from the previous rate of under two millimeters per year recorded from 1901 to 2018. This acceleration has dire implications, especially for small island states, and ominously augments the destructive potential of storm surges globally.
Research has projected that an additional 20 cm rise in sea levels by 2050 could result in an annual flood damage cost of one trillion dollars for the world’s 136 largest coastal cities.
Underlying these alarming shifts is Earth’s concerning energy imbalance—the disparity between the solar energy entering and leaving the atmosphere. Currently, an astonishing 91% of human-induced warming has been absorbed by our oceans, preventing life on land from experiencing dire conditions. However, the planet’s energy imbalance has nearly doubled over the last two decades, leaving scientists uncertain about how long this heat absorption can continue.
While the coming decade will inevitably bring climate impacts worse than what we’ve already seen, the future beyond that point is still within our grasp. “We will rapidly reach a level of global warming of 1.5C,” notes Valerie Masson-Delmotte, a co-author and former co-chair of the IPCC, “but what happens next depends on the choices that will be made.”
The Paris Agreement’s target of 1.5C remains a possibility if we can manage to lower global temperatures below this mark by the century’s end. With a pivotal climate summit approaching in Brazil, it’s important to recognize that international cooperation has been hampered by the US’s withdrawal from the Agreement. The dismantling of domestic climate policies under former President Trump poses risks not only for US emissions reduction targets but also dampens the commitment of other nations to enhance their pledges.
