China’s birth rate fell to an all-time low in 2025 as the country’s population shrank for a fourth consecutive year, underscoring a mounting demographic crisis despite a raft of policies aimed at encouraging couples to have children.
Official figures from the National Bureau of Statistics show 7.92 million births last year, equivalent to 5.63 births per 1,000 people. That is the lowest rate since records began in 1949, when Mao Zedong founded the People’s Republic of China. Births declined by 1.62 million from the prior year, a drop of 17%.
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Deaths rose to 11.31 million in 2025, translating to a mortality rate of 8.04 per 1,000. The natural population change was a decline of 2.41 per 1,000, with China’s total population shrinking by 3.39 million compared with 2024. The annual contraction extends a slide that started in 2022.
Beijing has moved to blunt the trend with incentives and new family policies after the national birth rate halved over the past decade despite the end of the restrictive one-child policy. But the latest data signal limited impact so far and highlight deeper forces reshaping households and the labor market.
Authorities rolled out a nationwide childcare subsidy on Jan. 1, offering parents roughly $500 a year for each child under age 3. Fees at public kindergartens were waived starting last fall. At the same time, China removed tax exemptions for contraception effective Jan. 1, meaning condoms and other products are now subject to a 13% value-added tax. Officials say they are trying to support marriage and fertility while managing a rapidly aging population.
Young Chinese are unconvinced. Marriage rates are hovering at record lows, and many prospective parents cite the cost of housing and education, demanding work expectations, and career risks associated with childbirth as reasons to delay or opt out. The jobless rate for people ages 16 to 24 hit 18.9% in August, underlining a tough labor market just as many graduates enter the workforce. Even for those employed, grueling “996” schedules—9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week—leave little time for family life.
Demographic pressures are particularly acute for couples who grew up under strict family-planning rules and are only children themselves. Many now shoulder the dual burden of raising kids while helping care for two sets of aging parents, a challenge that heightens financial and caregiving strains across urban and rural communities.
The patterns are increasingly visible in global comparisons. In 2023, China ranked among the 10 countries with the lowest birth rates, according to World Bank data, slotting just after Japan—another major economy grappling with long-term population decline.
China’s economy grew 5% in 2025, meeting an official target, but momentum remains uneven. Economists warn that the headline figure has been propped up by strong exports, masking sluggish domestic consumption. Demographic headwinds—fewer workers, slower household formation, and rising age-related costs—complicate efforts to sustain growth and revive confidence after the pandemic.
For now, the numbers point in one direction: fewer births, more deaths, and a shrinking population. Unless China can lower the cost of child-rearing, stabilize jobs for young people, and rebuild confidence in the future, its policy incentives may continue to meet powerful economic and social headwinds.
By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
