Firefighters at the Vatican have successfully installed a chimney atop the Sistine Chapel, preparing for the conclave set to begin on May 7.
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During this pivotal gathering, cardinals will cast their votes in secret to elect a new pope. The results are communicated to the world through the burning of ballots in a specialized stove. Black smoke signals that no decision has been reached, while white smoke indicates the election of a new pope.
Following the passing of Pope Francis—who led the Catholic Church for 12 years until his death on April 21 at the age of 88—cardinals from around the world have been summoned back to Rome.
On May 7, 133 cardinals under the age of 80, and thus eligible to elect his successor, will gather to commence their voting procedures, which are anticipated to unfold over several days.
If a candidate achieves the necessary two-thirds majority—at least 89 votes—the ballots will be burned along with chemicals to produce white smoke. Should no candidate receive enough votes during the initial morning session, the cardinals will move to a second vote; only afterward will the ballots be incinerated.
In cases where no pope is chosen, the unaltered smoke released from the chimney will be black. The same procedure applies to the afternoon session: if a pope is elected in the initial vote, white smoke will appear, but if not, the cardinals will once again proceed to a second vote before burning the ballots.
Short conclaves wrapping up within a couple of days project an image of unity, something the cardinals will aim for, especially following the recent loss of Pope Francis.
“We are aiming for a maximum of three days,” asserted Salvadoran Cardinal Gregorio Rosa Chavez with confidence.
The last ten conclaves averaged 3.2 days, with none extending beyond five. The previous two elections—in 2005 for Pope Benedict and in 2013 for Pope Francis—were concluded in just two days.
“Clearly, the more ballots you have, the more challenging things become. However, the initial signs indicate a desire for a swift conclusion,” noted Giovanni Vian, a Christian history professor at Ca’ Foscari University in Venice.
Among the 133 cardinals expected to enter the Sistine Chapel next week, some have long been regarded as “papabile” (potential popes), while others may emerge as candidates during the general congregations where discussions about the Church’s future will take place.
Immediately following Francis’s death, many observers pointed to Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin and Filipino prelate Luis Antonio Tagle as leading contenders, with a host of other candidates also in the mix.
The initial vote on the first afternoon of the conclave often serves as an informal barometer, where numerous names may be floated. Some of these votes may be symbolic, performed as gestures of respect or friendship prior to the serious balloting that follows.
According to conclave regulations, should no candidate be selected within the first three days, the cardinals must observe a day-long “pause of prayer” before resuming discussions.
It will soon become clear whether a frontrunner has emerged or if a compromise candidate will be necessary.
“If we don’t secure a new pope quickly, it could signal that initial support for various frontrunners dissipated swiftly,” commented Rev. Thomas Reese, a Jesuit priest and Vatican analyst.
“Moreover, it may highlight that many participants are relatively unfamiliar with one another,” he added.
Notably, Pope Francis appointed around 80% of the cardinal electors, many from remote dioceses, to strengthen the Church in areas where it previously had little influence. This means that for the overwhelming majority of participants, this will be their first conclave, suggesting limited prior interaction among many cardinals beneath Michelangelo’s renowned frescoes.
This dynamic might pave the way for so-called “grand electors,” who discreetly promote candidates during pre-conclave meetings and help envision the direction of the vote.
Cardinals are committed to secrecy regarding the progress of their voting, believing that the Holy Spirit guides their choices. While formal discussions are prohibited during voting sessions, cardinals can freely exchange opinions during meals at Santa Marta, the Vatican residence where many will be housed.
Reflecting on past conclaves, when cardinals convened for their second conclave of 1978 after the unexpected death of Pope John Paul I, Vienna’s Cardinal Franz Koenig galvanized German-speaking cardinals, and Polish-American Cardinal John Krol rallied US prelates to support the relatively obscure Pole, Karol Wojtyla, who became Pope John Paul II within three days.
While the focus appears to be on doctrinal disputes leading up to the upcoming conclave, Germany’s Cardinal Gerhard Mueller has been vocal in interviews rallying traditionalist perspectives, while many, including Canada’s Michael Czerny, advocate for Pope Francis’s moderate vision to prevail.
Despite the secrecy surrounding the voting process, detailed accounts often emerge post-election.
In his 2019 book, The Election of Pope Francis, Gerard O’Connell recounted how Jorge Mario Bergoglio, an Argentine cardinal previously overlooked as a “papabile,” captured attention with a compelling speech before the 2013 conclave. Notably, 23 cardinals received votes in the initial round, with Bergoglio finishing second, only to surge ahead in subsequent ballots, eventually leading to his election.
“I wouldn’t panic if we don’t have a pope by the end of day two,” Rev. Reese remarked. “However, if there is still no white smoke by the conclusion of the third day, we may begin to worry.”
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International – Monitoring.
