More than two thirds of the Euro 2020 matches have been played, but there are still 16 teams left. It’s time for this tournament to increase.
Impressive group play performances will be quickly forgotten if there is no progress after the last 16 years.
But who looks best to succeed on the way out in the knockout rounds? Stats Perform Euros Prediction, created by Stats Performs AI team using Opta data, tries to answer that question.
This model estimates the probability of outcome (win or loss) for each match using odds market odds and Stats Perform team rankings, which are based on historical and recent performance. It takes into account the opponents’ strength and how difficult each team’s path to the final now looks.
The remainder of the tournament has since been simulated 40,000 times, with each analysis analyzed, giving a percentage to assign to each of the remaining 16 teams to show their chances of lifting the trophy.
With the mount now in place, the picture becomes clearer, with each nation ranked below …
Austria Sneaks Through / Justin Setterfield / Getty Images
Austria’s performances before match day three had not indicated the type of screen that would sweep Ukraine aside, but they tried 18 shots and their only goal was enough to advance from the group for the first time at a European Championship.
However, it can not take long to calm the spirits. Italy is the next step and Austria has only a 24.1 percent chance of getting through the quarterfinals, let alone winning the tournament.
Modric ran the show against Scotland / Pixsell / MB Media / Getty Images
Croatia were finalists at the 2018 World Cup and will be veterans of the knockout stage. After escaping the group in only three of their first eight major tournaments, they have now done so three times in a row.
The last 16 opponents in Spain still have a bigger pedigree, but have just registered their 50th tournament victory. Croatia only gets a 19.0 percent chance of winning that tie – hence their distant title jump.
Schick’s goals were important / Robin Jones / Getty Images
Four points from the first two matches put the Czech Republic’s fate in their own hands against England and was able to win the group with a draw.
As it turned out, none of the three potential opponents were particularly appetizing. They will play the Netherlands, where the victory is only considered 25.2 percent probability.
Wales are in the last 16 / Marcio Machado / Getty Images
Wales kept their record to advance to the knockout rounds in every major tournament they have appeared in and also appear to have landed on the easier side of the draw.
Opponents Denmark, however, are gaining momentum and are considered to be clear 66.7 percent favorites in the 16-year-olds, with a repeat of Wales’ semi-final interest rate ranked at 11.8 percent.
Yarmolenko has been impressive / Justin Setterfield / Getty Images
Ukraine and opponents Sweden will both see a huge opportunity to make the block, even though Andriy Shevchenko’s men believed that the defeat against Austria had ceased their hopes.
The lucky third place in the Group C group can still not be too confident, but a Euro goal in its nine matches and meets a Swedish team that has just scored three goals in a match in the tournament for the first time since 2004.
Switzerland is by / Marcio Machado / Getty Images
By beating Turkey on match day three, Switzerland struck new ground. A 3-1 victory meant that the Swiss scored more than two goals in a Euromatch for the first time, after only netting nine times in the history of the competition.
They will do well to even come close to a repeat, with France next, which means Switzerland ranks at just 25.4 percent to make the final eight.
Sweden topped its group / Maxim Shemetov – Pool / Getty Images
Sweden bowed out of the World Cup in the quarterfinals three years ago and could still get a rematch against the 2018 opponents England in the same stage in Rome.
To do so, they must beat Ukraine, although a 63.3 percent mark indicates that they have a fantastic opportunity to do so. With a 17.8 percent chance of making the holiday, further progress seems unlikely.
Mikkel Damsgaard is one to watch / Wolfgang Rattay – Pool / Getty Images
Under extremely difficult circumstances, Denmark became the first team in European Championship history to lose their first two group matches and still advance. They finished second in Group B thanks to a 4-1 victory against Russia – the fourth time they have scored four or more in a major tournament.
Denmark have won each of their last three competitive meetings with Wales and are supported to do so again, while even a slightly trickier quarter-final against the Netherlands or the Czech Republic gives them a 31.0 percent chance of winning.
Ronaldo is still the principal / Tibor Illyes – Pool / Getty Images
At various points on Wednesday, Portugal were first, second, third and fourth in Group F. However, they finished third, and that means a terrible draw against Belgium. In fact, the Red Devils are among four of the top seven on this list in the defending champions’ half of the draw.
Portugal, who have only a 32.7 percent chance of advancing to the last eight, have chosen a bad time to start delivering goals. They have conceded six in their last two matches, as many as in their previous 11 Euro matches.
Mancini may be the best manager in the tournament / Claudio Villa / Getty Images
Italy is about to break a record and set a new one when they tackle Austria. A 31st game without defeat would be a new benchmark, while a 12th goal should match their best run of 12 between 1972 and 1974.
Austria will probably not control Azzurri’s speed, but potential opponents in the quarterfinals Belgium or Portugal may. Italy has only a 13.2 percent chance of reaching the final.
Kane needs to find some form / Marc Atkins / Getty Images
This is only the third time England have won their group at the European Championships – even if it only means they have to play old rivals Germany next.
However, The Three Lions will back off to at least keep that game tight. They are the lowest score ever to top a Euro pool (two goals) but have also kept a clean sheet in all three matches, with 15 suspensions in the last 19 in all competitions.
The Netherlands has impressed / BSR Agency / Getty Images
No side has more than 100 percent of group campaigns in euros than the Netherlands, and this is their third after 2000 and 2008. Oranje has also scored two or more goals in ten straight games in all competitions.
The Czech Republic represents the first step on a relatively good path to the final, a stage that they have the third best chance of reaching (24.1 percent).
Germany edged just past Hungary / Matthias Hangst / Getty Images
Germany avoided a repeat of their exit from the World Cup squad, but it was nervous against Hungary. They were one of only four teams to be released first in each of their matches. The others – Turkey, Northern Macedonia and Poland – have all been eliminated.
The model makes Germany fall short of England – 45.4 percent – but they are supported to go further than the three lions if they were to successfully negotiate this tie.
Spain finally scored some goals on match day three / Quality Sport Images / Getty Images
After a tough start to the tournament, Spain certainly played their easiest game against Slovakia and broke an EC record with their margin of victory when they scored five for the first time in the competition in a 5-0 success.
It is less than three years since La Roja netted six against the next opponent Croatia, but even an unlikely repetition would create a frightening quarter-final, potentially against France.
Lukaku has been in great shape / Isosport / MB Media / Getty Images
Roberto Martinez’s Belgium have been in imperious form and won each of their group games as they did at the 2018 World Cup. The campaign ended in a 1-0 defeat in the semi-final against France, which was the last time the Red Devils failed to score.
But Belgium is being subjected to strenuous driving through the knockout stage. First it’s Portugal, then potentially Italy. France can be semi-final opponents, with Martinez’s men a shot of 45.8 percent to get this far.
France is the team to beat / Alex Pantling / Getty Images
Only one of the top three can reach the final due to the draw, but world champion France is marginally considered to be the most likely at 27.6 percent.
Les Bleus has a familiar feeling on their way into the 16-year-old, after going undefeated in the group stage but drawing on match day three in four tournaments in a row now.
