Last week, Gilles Yabi spoke about the presidential election on Sunday, April 11 in Benin, in a particularly tense climate, which was confirmed by the localized violence of recent days. But on the same Sunday, voters are also called to the polls in Chad to elect their president.
Yes, in connection with this presidential election, Wathi is presenting a case on Chad, which is one of the countries in Central Africa that forms a crossroads with institutional West Africa and which we believe belongs to our geographical area of concentration. I must say that the ambition to make sense of the election by presenting the candidates’ programs and the efforts of these votes runs counter to the political reality of several African countries.
If signs of regression in the construction of democracy and the rule of law in West Africa are obvious in the countries that were well engaged in this direction in Central Africa, then the reality is a glaciation of political practice in a state far removed from the recipes for its own constitutions.
Can we imagine President – Marshal Idriss Déby in power for more than 30 years looking for a sixth term losing this year’s election? Not really. What is at stake in the election is not the result. But should we no longer be interested in election rallies in a country like Chad? We believe that these moments at least provide an opportunity to understand the trends in different areas, from environment to health, from education to economics, and not just in the political and security field. An overview of Chad makes it possible to underline the seriousness of the dangers looming on the horizon throughout Central Africa.
What are these dangers, Gilles?
It is mainly the danger of an interconnection of painful and potentially violent political transitions in several countries in the same region in the next few years, regardless of whether the horizon is two, five or ten years. A priori, not even the strongest strong men are immortal.
What will happen in those countries where presidents or their families have three or four decades or more in power and where the country’s leadership is largely determined by the quality of decisions made by an almighty and omniscient leader?
In the Republic of Congo, where President Denis Sassou Nguesso has just been re-elected with 88.4% of the vote, in Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon, and of course in Chad, political stability is closely linked to the life of power. . But the more time passes, the more this longevity is an important risk factor. The younger generations’ quest for alternation, for a form of political modernity, combined with certain economic and social difficulties, exposes these countries to political uncertainty filled with threats.
And you also say that the sustainability of the least democratic regimes in each of the regions of the continent has consequences for all other countries …
Absolutely. If rather authoritarian powers under a democratic veneer generalize and settle permanently in West Africa, we should not be surprised to see ECOWAS, the regional organization, abandon its most important texts in the field of democracy, governance and human rights. It already seems to be a long way in this direction.
And if authoritarian regimes are perennials in Central Africa that are very rich in mineral and oil resources, they are just as much political support, but also financial support to all their counterparts who share the same view of what should be the exercise of power in Africa. Nor should we expect miracles from the African Union if the rulers who are genuinely interested in democratic governance become increasingly isolated. Predicting the likely political developments in West and Central African countries over the next 5 to 10 years is an intellectual and almost moral requirement.
Find the file in Chad at www.wathi.org
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