Navigating the Storm: Violence and Democracy in Nigeria’s Political Landscape Ahead of 2027
As Nigeria gears up for its 2027 elections, a palpable tension hangs in the air, reverberating through the streets of a nation rich in culture but strained under the weight of political machinations. The fear of violence looms large, echoing the troubling cycles of electoral conflict seen in 1999, 2019, and most recently, in 2023, when hired thugs, gangs, and political militias turned polling stations into battlegrounds. Scholars and citizens alike share a collective concern: If history is any guide, the upcoming elections may tip towards chaos unless addressed with foresight and engagement.
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A Legacy of Violence
Maureen Fubara, a PhD candidate and keen observer of Nigeria’s political climate, reminds us that violence in Nigerian elections is not merely a byproduct of a few rogue candidates but rather a systematic issue deeply embedded in the party politics. “The organized violence in high-rent states is particularly harmful,” she states, emphasizing that it perpetuates not just one-party dominance but also long-term insecurity for citizens who yearn for genuine democratic change.
Walking through the vibrant neighborhoods of Lagos or the modest towns of Kano, one cannot escape the palpable anxiety etched on many faces. Stories of electoral violence punctuate conversations in market stalls and bustling bus terminals. A young vendor selling akara, the popular fried bean cakes, reflects on the last election cycle: “It was terrifying. You didn’t know if your neighbor was a thug or a voter. We just want peace during elections.” This sentiment resonates with many, reminding us that behind cold statistics of political violence are the warm, beating hearts of people yearning for stability.
The Funding of Violence
According to Fubara’s analysis, the variation in violence across Nigeria’s diverse states closely correlates with the “amount of funding governors control.” In wealthier states where governors reap massive resource rents, the stakes become dangerously high. “When you have governors with access to vast amounts of funds, it becomes easier for them to buy loyalty and silence dissent,” she adds. As the race for power heats up, this creates a volatile mix where the cost of committing electoral violence is outweighed by the potential gains of retaining power.
In regions where funding is scarce, the dynamics shift. Here, elections may be characterized by grassroots mobilization, often framed as community defense against perceived electoral threats. Yet, even this local engagement can be hijacked by greater political interests. Fubara’s insights underscore a grim reality: when money dictates the flow of elections, democracy itself becomes a mere puppet on strings controlled by wealth and violence.
Democracy at Risk
The implications of this violence extend beyond the immediate chaos of election day; they resonate throughout the fabric of Nigerian society. “Each violent incident during an election erodes public trust in democratic institutions,” Fubara notes, posing critical questions about the future of governance in a nation already grappling with corruption, nepotism, and instability. The broader question remains: What are the steps that can be taken to shield democracy from the corrosive influences of money and violence?
- Strengthening Electoral Bodies: Independent electoral commissions must be fortified and empowered to oversee elections without the specter of violence looming.
- Community Engagement: Promoting civic education and encouraging community-led initiatives can help foster a culture of peaceful participation in the electoral process.
- International Oversight: The call for international observers to the elections may seem distant, but their presence can deter potential acts of violence and build accountability.
- Political Will: Ultimately, the change rests in the hands of leaders. A commitment to non-violence and integrity must be embraced by those vying for power.
A Call to Action
As we approach 2027, the world watches Nigeria with hope but also apprehension. Each Nigerian citizen holds a powerful sway over the outcome of the elections. Citizens must prioritize not just their political affiliations but their collective safety and the health of their democracy. “We have to stand together,” implores a local teacher, reminiscing about peaceful protests from the past. “Our power lies in our unity and our voice.”
These sentiments echo a crucial reality for any nation on the brink of violence-laden elections: democracy flourishes when every citizen feels safe to express their views, vote freely, and hold their leaders accountable. The road ahead is fraught with challenges, but it also bears the promise of change. As Nigeria stands at this pivotal juncture, the world must join the call for a more peaceful, transparent, and inclusive electoral process. Only then can the vibrant spirit of a nation thrive, unshackled from the chains of violence.
By Omer Aden
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
