Shifting Power Dynamics in South Africa’s Parliament
The African National Congress (ANC), South Africa’s longstanding ruling party, appears poised to relinquish its majority status after securing approximately 41% of the votes, based on 85% of ballots tallied, as reported by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC).
Should these figures hold true in the final tally this weekend, while the ANC would remain the largest party, it would need to seek partnerships in parliament to maintain its hold on power.
These preliminary outcomes suggest a significant downturn for President Cyril Ramaphosa’s party, which commanded a robust 57.5% in the previous parliamentary election of 2019.
If the ANC, a legacy of anti-apartheid leader Nelson Mandela, fails to crack the 50% threshold—an expectation increasingly likely—they will be compelled to negotiate a coalition.
Historically, since the dawn of democracy in 1994, the ANC has consistently clinched an outright majority, governing the continent’s largest economy autonomously.
The economically centrist Democratic Alliance (DA), under the stewardship of John Steenhuisen, has managed to capture 22.16% of the vote so far. Making an intriguing debut is uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), a party established just six months ago by former president Jacob Zuma, which stands at 13.06%. Following closely is the leftist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), garnering 9.41% of the support.
As per the initial figures, the ANC is also set to lose its absolute majority in Gauteng—South Africa’s economic powerhouse that encompasses the capital, Pretoria, along with Johannesburg, its bustling economic hub.
The party is anticipated to drop below the critical 50% point in KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma’s native province.
In contrast, the Western Cape, home to Cape Town and the nation’s second-largest economic province, remains securely in the DA’s grasp, demonstrating its continued majority rule.
On May 29, candidates from 52 different parties vied for the 400 seats in the National Assembly. The new parliament must swiftly establish a government and appoint a president within 14 days following the final result announcement.
