World Bank Forecasts Robust GDP Surge for Somalia and Ethiopia This Year

Ethiopia’s growth rate clocked in at 7.0%, a slight dip of 0.2 points from last year’s data.

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In comparison to January’s review, the forecast has lifted by 0.2 and 0.6 percent, signaling brighter economic skies for the first and second quarters of this year.

Somalia’s growth is pegged to firm up at 3.9 percent next year, while Ethiopia’s rate is expected to stay at 7.0.

Broadly speaking, economic expansion in low-income countries (LICs) hit the brakes last year, slowing to about 3.8 percent. However, the lender predicts a rebound to 5 percent this year and an average of 5.4 percent for 2025-2026.

“Still, the average figure for LICs marks significant downward adjustments from January’s projections. The main culprits are the persistent high levels of conflict in many LICs and delayed recovery in conflict-ridden regions,” the World Bank reports.

The institution adds that the previous year’s sluggish growth was chiefly due to ramped-up political tumult and violent skirmishes in LICs like Niger and Sudan, along with lackluster performances from some metal-exporting LICs grappling with weak external demand and dwindling global metal prices.

The report also highlights that a good number of these nations are still tangled in a web of enduring challenges and brittleness, especially in the Sahel region, where violent incidents surged massively over the past year.

“Sky-high violence and extreme weather have been displacing folks, messing up food supplies, and deepening poverty levels. Many LICs face gnarly policy dilemmas. The wiggle room to assist the poor has shrunk or vanished in several places, while towering financing needs and meager access to fresh funds are jeopardizing debt sustainability.”

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