The Islamic State took responsibility on Monday, March 29, for the attack in the coastal region of Cabo Delgado, where Total is established to exploit a mega submarine gas field. Does this new jihadist offensive call into question a project that is likely to change the island of Mozambique?
Contacted by RFI, Total said “to trust the Mozambican government to regain control of the area”. No question of giving up, but the company’s message is stubborn: the government must absolutely take control of the security situation. The country’s president made a commitment to Total’s boss, Patrick Pouyanné, who came to meet him in January. At present, it is a complete failure, according to consultant Philippe Sébille-Lopez. According to him, the army is not up to the task and the private Russian or South African companies that follow each other on the spot “are of no use”.
Taking peace in the region will take time
Not months but rather years. A delay that is worth the light for Total, the project operator. The expansion of LNG, where it is already the second largest private operator in the world, is part of the strategy to reduce its carbon footprint. For Mozambique, this is an important project. When the deposit was discovered, there was talk of a jackpot for this South African country, which was ranked among the poorest in the world by the World Bank.
It could be one of the very first exporters of liquefied natural gas in the world, in competition with Qatar, for example.
Its geography, with its long coastline open to the Indian Ocean, makes it an ideal supplier for Asia. The state expects an annual revenue of $ 3 billion within ten years. Total has promised to invest $ 20 billion in the project. And the American company Exxon was able to invest $ 30 billion. With the presence of Italian ENI and other Asian companies, 60 billion will be injected. This makes it the largest foreign investment on the African continent. That is four times the annual GDP of a country where two out of three people live below the poverty line.
But these promises are still a long way off: Before you withdraw money, you must first spend to solve the security issue. A challenge for an over-indebted state. External assistance seems necessary. The United States says it is ready to help the government in the fight against the Shebabs – at the moment, US support is being reduced to a dozen special forces. There, for two months to train the Mozambican commands.
The economic interests of the United States are also at stake in this project. Many US companies have contracts with Total. This represents more than 16,000 jobs on American soil. And it is partly an American bank that finances the French company. Eximbanken takes $ 5 billion to the church.
Finally, the commitment of the administration will undoubtedly be crucial for the company Exxon, which has already postponed its final investment decision twice. Not only because of the jihadist attack but also because of Covid-19. The pandemic has lowered the gas market and made investments more difficult and less profitable.
Briefly
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