Mogadishu (AX) — The intricate tapestry of Ethiopian politics is once again at a crossroads, with the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) standing poised on the verge of conflict. This tension unfurls from a central grievance: the perceived breach of a peace agreement by the Ethiopian government. Signed in 2018, during the nascent tenure of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the accord promised autonomy over resources for the Somali region, an acknowledgment of historical injustices, and a commitment to foster free trade alongside human rights advancements. Yet, as ONLF Chairman Abdikarim Sheikh Mohamed Mahdi—known to many as Maaday—paints it, these promises have not crossed the threshold from rhetoric to reality.
In a telling interview with BBC Somali, Maaday laid bare the simmering frustrations within ONLF. “We are contemplating a spectrum of responses,” Maaday elaborated, “ranging from military action to political maneuvers, peaceful resistance, and perhaps, renewed dialogues.” This reflection underscores a boiling frustration, urging us to ponder the shadowy dance between unfulfilled promises and renewed conflict.
The ONLF’s journey since its inception in 1984 has been etched with the struggle for self-determination and rights within the Ethiopian tapestry. Fast forward to 2018—a ceasefire crystallized with expectations of reform. Yet, as Maaday contends, the Ethiopian authorities, under Abiy’s watch, have stuttered in their enactment. He punctuates his grievances with a vivid metaphor: the misguided political chess game of divide-and-rule.
Maaday describes recent attempts to destabilize ONLF’s unity, noting a meeting in Jigjiga between the Somali regional government and a splinter group. “They manipulate,” Maaday asserts with palpable frustration, “by supporting factions claiming false leadership, only to present a facade of reconciliation.” This narrative invites us to reflect on the universal human struggle against division and manipulation.
The Ethiopian government, though, with Mustafe Mohamed Omar—known affectionately and politically as ‘Cagjar’—at the helm of the Somali Regional State, pushes back against such narratives. Cagjar’s voice rings with rebuttal, characterizing ONLF’s claims as destabilizing tactics. “Our legacy is one of reform, of ending oppression and broadening freedoms,” Cagjar contends, recounting a narrative of positive transformation.
In a world where political narratives often clash, Cagjar illustrates compelling stories of past hardships giving way to newfound freedoms. Yet, he doesn’t shy from critiquing ONLF, framing them as politically immature. “Blaming fragmentation on the government,” he observes wryly, “echoes an odd logic—like a political entity accusing its rival of self-inflicted chaos.”
Cagjar’s rhetoric invites us to consider the evolving landscape of Ethiopian politics: a shift from suppression to opportunity, and yet—with opportunity—comes complexity. The ever-watchful public must navigate these new currents, assessing the strides taken amidst ONLF’s persistent claims.
The larger narrative here extends beyond geopolitical lines, unraveling themes of trust, legacy, and the precarious dance of power. How do promises entwine with actions—or the lack thereof? It prompts us to ask: Are promises made in haste or with earnest intent, and what happens when they’re haunted by inaction?
Amidst Ethiopian government assurances and ONLF’s readiness to revive its militaristic demeanor, the delicate balance teeters. The world watches, wondering whether dialogue will reclaim its seat at the table, or if history will slip back into a familiar pattern of conflict.
Edited by Ali Musa
Axadle Times International–Monitoring.
