Military clashes loom as Ethiopia and Egypt fight over Nile dam
ADDIS ABABA – Ethiopia’s decision to resume filling the Grand Renaissance dam [GERD] along the Blue Nile has exacerbated tensions between Cairo and Addis Ababa, in a conflict that could reach new heights unprecedented in modern history in the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia has already officially notified Egypt that it has resumed filling the dam, which is expected to end the power generation crisis in the country. But Cairo, which depends on the waters of the Nile for agriculture and domestic use, has posed a number of questions.
Sameh Shoukry, Egypt’s foreign minister, said the waters of the Nile fell by 2%, adding that this represented a loss of 100,000 acres of agriculture and 1 million jobs in the North African country. .
While Egypt raises these fundamental questions, Ethiopia on the other hand is worried about its policy of electrification and modernization of its economy based on the dam. In other words, one path could lead to the Egyptians being thirsty, the other path would lead to the Ethiopians being hungry.
For months now, the two sides as well as Sudan have had talks on how to alleviate the problem, but so far no agreement has been reached. The United States and the African Union have been at the forefront of the search for long-term solutions to the crisis.
Talks are due to take place at the UN Security Council on Thursday, but discussions have been ongoing over the use of the Nile’s waters for decades. When – in 2010 – Ethiopia announced that it would build the dam, these negotiations took on new urgency. But they got nowhere.
According to Wilson Center, “The two countries have had countless discussions, engaged expert commissions to report on the impact of the dam and, in 2015, even agreed to a self-inflicted policy statement. damage. “
“However, they were never able to agree on the crucial details: the timing of filling the reservoir and what to do during drought years – in early 2020, Egypt insisted on the fact that filling is expected to take twelve to twenty years, depending on the amount of rainfall while Ethiopia, with a $ 5 billion investment in the dam and an urgent need to show returns, insisted Five to Seven. “
Analysts say the impending meeting at the United Nations Security Council [UNSC] may not reach an amicable solution, which leaves only one other alternative for Egypt and their Sudanese allies – and that is to turn to their military. Cairo and Khartoum signed a military accord in March this year.
However, it is difficult to see how a military option would work against the dam, but there are few other alternatives for Egypt or Sudan. The time seems to be fast approaching when they will take action or do what they have sworn not to do – accept the dam on the Blue Nile as a fait accompli.
“If they accept the dam on Ethiopia’s terms, Cairo and Khartoum will then have to call on Addis Ababa not to fill the dam too quickly and to release the water in the event of a severe drought. But they would be in a weak position. , without the binding international agreement to regularize the dam they always wanted, ”says Wilson Center.
Ethiopia last year questioned Egypt’s decision to push for the establishment of a military base in Somaliland, which it said was a deliberate attempt to “provoke” us. Addis Ababa further noted that “we will not allow anyone to establish a military base in the neighborhood.”
Cairo explored the options of establishing a military base along the Red Sea or the Indian Ocean as a means of imposing authority in the Horn of Africa. The GERD project has sparked tensions in all three countries despite their own internal crises, including the Tigray conflict and the Sudan war.
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