Impact of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Closure on Africa’s Future

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz: What this means for Africa

The Strategic Shake-Up: What the Potential Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Means for Global Energy and Africa

- Advertisement -

As we await a pivotal decision from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council regarding the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one thing is clear: the discussions are reverberating across the globe. Iranian state broadcaster Press TV has confirmed that a parliamentary vote favoring this closure has already passed. But what does this mean for the world, and specifically for Africa?

This anticipated move has created ripples of concern over a significant spike in global energy prices. It has deepened geopolitical tensions, placing the spotlight on international powers like the United States, which has reportedly urged Beijing to intervene and help mitigate the growing crisis. Why does this strategic waterway spark such intense debate and concern?

The Strait of Hormuz is not just any waterway; it’s a narrow yet immensely critical passage that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Picture this: on its widest point, it spans about 50 kilometers (31 miles), but it narrows down to a mere 33 kilometers. Bordered by Iran to the north and by Oman and the UAE to the south, this strait serves as a lifeline for global energy flows.

Remarkably, despite its modest size, it is deep enough to accommodate the world’s largest oil tankers, acting as a conduit for nearly 20 million barrels of oil daily—valued at nearly $600 billion annually—according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. These shipments comprise critical exports from several countries, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE. With those numbers, one can’t help but wonder: how fragile is this lifeline?

This intricate web of energy and politics could ultimately spell trouble for Iran. While the country seeks to gain geopolitical leverage, experts caution that it stands to suffer the most as it equally depends on this strait for its essential energy exports. CNBC recently highlighted this paradox, emphasizing that such self-sabotage could backfire, weakening Iran’s position in the process.

But what about Africa? The implications for the continent could be dire. With many African nations leaning heavily on imported refined fuel, any disruption could trigger inflation, strain political relations, and destabilize economies. Countries like South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya are particularly vulnerable to the rising storm.

Oil Import Disruptions Loom for Africa

The immediate impacts on Africa are primarily economic. To illustrate, Kenya has recently extended its fuel import agreement with three Gulf state-owned firms—namely Saudi Aramco, Emirates National Oil, and Abu Dhabi National Oil—for an additional two years. This reliance underscores a poignant question: what will happen if affordable oil imports dwindle or disappear?

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt global oil flows, and Goldman Sachs predicts a staggering $10 increase in crude prices if that occurs. For Africa’s fragile economies already grappling with inflation and debt, this could exacerbate existing issues, driving fuel and transport costs sky-high while worsening food inflation. How long can these nations hold out under such pressures?

Already, signs of shipping disruptions are becoming apparent. Recent U.S. strikes against Iran have prompted multiple supertankers to make immediate U-turns near the strait. In the face of escalating tensions, countries like Saudi Arabia are scrambling to take measures to cushion the potential fallout. Interestingly, the Saudi government has activated its East–West pipeline—a substantial 1,200-kilometer line capable of transporting up to 5 million barrels of crude oil per day—providing an alternative route that circumvents the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Reuters, supertanker rates have doubled in just a week, soaring to over $60,000 per day. Even oil exporters such as Nigeria and Angola are not immune, as their revenues are deeply tied to volatile Brent crude prices and increasingly vulnerable shipping lanes.

During a recent discussion with Business Insider Africa, Omono Okonkwo, an Energy Analyst and Communications Director at DEER Nigeria, shared a stark warning. She stated, “If the Strait of Hormuz closes, the global oil market would face immediate and severe disruption.” With oil prices potentially doubling within days, the ramifications for inflation could be catastrophic. What are the long-term consequences for Africa if it continues down this path of dependency?

Yet, Okonkwo also expressed hope. She remarked, “Short-term effects would see oil prices surge dramatically… but long-term, such a crisis could serve as the catalyst the continent needs to finally prioritize domestic refining capacity and energy infrastructure development.” This insight resonates: Could the looming crisis be an opportunity in disguise for Africa to redefine its energy landscape?

Politically, Iran’s provocative actions thrust African countries into a challenging dilemma. Many of these nations maintain solid ties with both Gulf states and the United States. The crisis thus presents an urgent call for African leaders to diversify their energy sources, strengthen regional supply chains, and adopt a balanced yet principled foreign policy in a world increasingly marked by polarization.

As we navigate these complex geopolitical waters, it remains essential to monitor the unfolding events surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The potential closure could serve as a painful lesson and an opportunity for growth, pushing Africa—and indeed the world—to rethink its energy strategies.

Ultimately, the question lingers: How prepared are we, as a global community, to tackle these challenges moving forward?

Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International – Monitoring.

banner

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More