NAIROBI, Kenya – With the Ethiopian conflict now spreading from Tigray to other neighboring states such as Afar and Amhara, it has been reported that the Ethiopian national defense forces [ENDF] have used sophisticated drones from Iran in their operations.
- Advertisement -
The Tigray Defense Forces [TDF] who particularly disagreed with the Federal Army, has often claimed that the military uses armed drones from an air base in neighboring Eritrea.
For a time, the only firm, open source evidence of the Ethiopian government’s use of drones were small unarmed Chinese commercial drones operated by the country’s police, which were then used by the military.
Although the ENDF initially denied using drones in the Tigray region, the team later made a confession, corroborating information originally released by investigative site Bellingcat.com. The ENDF claimed it was targeting TDF when there was some evidence that even innocent civilians were being targeted.
“Our air force is equipped with modern drones. We have our own technicians and controllers who run and pilot them. We don’t need others to help us in our fight against extremists. We are quite autonomous, ”noted Ethiopian Air Force Major General Yilma Merdasa in an interview with local media last November.
But Major General Merdasa’s interview did not answer a particularly important question: Who built Ethiopia’s drone fleet?
This is even more important to ask in light of reports that surfaced last week by open source researchers alleging Ethiopia is now operating Iranian-made armed drones. Bellingcat has obtained new satellite images from Planet SkySat and MAXAR, as well as evidence from social media, to further analyze these claims.
In some images posted on Facebook and Twitter, Bellingcat established that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed with Temesgen Tiruneh, head of the National Intelligence and Security Service (in blue jacket) was walking away from the tarmac.
Although it was not possible to establish precisely who took this series of images, they first appeared that morning on several strongly pro-government Facebook pages, including the Ethio Times and Kiyya Hararghe. The images were also later posted on the Facebook page of the Oromo service of Voice of America, a major language in Ethiopia.
“Army Commander and Prime Minister Dr Abiy Ahmed on the Afar Front” reads this caption in Amharic.
Bellingcat and open source researchers such as flight tracking expert @Gerjon_ were able to independently geotag these photos at Semara airport (11.791731, 40.991712).
For example, in the background of an image, behind the Prime Minister, a Ground Control Station (GCS) can be seen – this facility contains drone control systems. An airplane can be seen next to the GCS which deserves more attention. Could it be a drone, and if so, what type?
One of the images included in the Facebook post gives a glimpse of the interior of the GCS. It shows a video feed from a camera, often considered part of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) modules on drones. In short, this is the sight {that a} drone operator at a military base would see on their computer screen.
But Twitter users such as @Iranianmilitary_AR quickly noticed similarities with Iranian military software. This established that indeed ENDF was using Iranian drones, which at one point Tehran was in conflict with Washington.
Bellingcat.com also drew similarities by watching images of drone streams broadcast in 2019 on an Iranian news channel and uploaded to the video-sharing site Aparat. Various measurements, such as the latitude-longitude meter, are laid out in exactly the same way on the screen. The same distinct reticle can also be seen in both images.
These commonalities, Bellingcat noted, suggest that the two drones use similar intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance (ISTAR) software.
The aforementioned characteristics of some Iranian drone flow footage appear to have remained consistent since 2019. For example, in May 2021, a video posted by Iranian TV and shared on Youtube shows the Iranian military operating Mohajer-6 drones with a view clear of the drone flow. .
Bellingcat checked the drone flow seen at Semara against other publicly available drone flow images for Chinese, Turkish, Iranian and US drones, but found no other close matches. While this does not conclusively rule out other setups, it does make it more likely that the items seen on-screen are those of a specific software stream for the Mohajer-6.
Bellingcat also obtained high-resolution 0.5m images of Planet SkySat from Semara Airport on August 2, 2021 – a day before photos of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s visit were taken. The image below includes more clues to the identity of the aircraft:
Since GCS can be used to operate drones, it is reasonable to assume that nearby planes could well be drones.
The measurement of the plane in satellite imagery shows that these two planes have a wingspan of 10 meters, and a length of six meters. This eliminates some possible drone candidates that have recently emerged in various conflicts, such as the Chinese Wing Loong II and the CH-4 and CH-5, or the Turkish Bayraktar TB-2. All of them have a longer wingspan.
Additionally, Bellingcat obtained a 0.8m high resolution MAXAR WorldView-3 image from Semara on August 5, courtesy of European Space Imaging. However, atmospheric conditions limit the use of this image. It’s a bit more blurry, which makes it harder to get a clearer picture of the shape of drones.
By this time, the 737 is already gone. However, we still see what should be two drones at Semara airport, including the GCS on the tarmac. One of the two drones was brought closer to the main building of the airport.
As previously reported, the wing measurements from satellite imagery did not match those of several types of Chinese drones known to be used in conflict zones. However, that alone does not rule out all drones made in China – an important step in the verification, given the previous confirmed use of Chinese drones in Ethiopian police operations. Additionally, the precise shape of the satellite imagery was not clear enough to determine the exact model, leaving more questions open.
With these wing measurements in mind, let’s go back to the photos showing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed at the airfield. A closer look at photos in the vast Facebook album of the prime minister’s visit to Semara showed the outline of a drone that matched the shape of an Iranian Mohajer-6.
A closer look reveals other similarities between the landing gear and shape of this drone and those of the Iranian Mohajer-6. On the drone to the right, two different images from the aforementioned Facebook photo album show the different parts of the drones in the background. . Once aligned, we can see the tail fin of the drone and start to have a composite image (given that the two drones appear to be identical).
In the blue area of the top zoomed image, we see a possible form of a missile under the drone, which will be discussed later. These specific designs are depicted in the enlarged images below: the curved flared nose, landing gear, gauges and wingspan are unique features for a Mohajer-6, providing more guidance than it could possibly imagine. indeed be a drone of Iranian origin.
As far as Bellingcat could establish at the time of publication, there are currently no other drones with these specific measurements and shapes that fit this profile. Again, while some drones made in China (GAIC Yaoying II / Air-Sniper-2) and Turkey (Karayel) have similar measurements, none matched the Facebook images of the drone shared above as closely.
There have been massive allegations that the ENDF has committed genocide in the Tigray region, thousands of people have been massacred. The ENDF has denied the allegations even though the UN Security Council has requested an independent audit.
In retaliation, the Tigray Defense Forces moved closer to Afar and Amhara regions, where they are pursuing those they accuse of overseeing the genocide in Tigray. And in response, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has since asked citizens to help him fight TDF, which he accuses of sowing anarchy in the country.
There are fears that the conflict could escalate to dangerous levels after it emerged that TDF could team up with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), an organization in the Oromia region of Abiy that is is opposed to its direction. The two sides are said to be exploring avenues of cooperation.
AXADLETM
