Mogadishu (AX) — The path to Mogadishu is fraught with challenges. Once-thriving towns now lay shattered, with makeshift outposts marking territories—changing hands one too many times, too quickly to remember. A new report from the insightful Soufan Center has painted a stark picture: Al-Shabaab’s newest offensive in central Somalia threatens to destabilize Mogadishu. The capital stands vulnerable as Somalia’s forces—spread far too thin—grapple with an alarming surge in militant activities.
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Since February 2025, a chilling increase in attacks paints the landscape in the Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions, ratcheting up by a staggering 50 percent compared to the previous year. The report, titled “Between Islamic State and Al-Shabaab: An Embattled Mogadishu?”, ominously details Al-Shabaab’s takeover of strategic towns and even a temporary breach of a Somali Armed Forces base. This escalation isn’t just statistics; it’s a stark reminder that security is fragile and ever-fluctuating.
Harun Maruf, a well-known voice in these narratives, reminds us, “To portray this as a fresh ‘advance’ toward Mogadishu is premature. They’ve been ambushing reinforcements in this area for years—this is not new.”
In the early months of 2025, the government forces, alongside courageous local fighters, clashed with Al-Shabaab in Beera Yabaal, fending off fierce attacks. Security sources confirm the grim aftermath: over 100 militants killed. Yet, the enemy is persistent. They retreated and regrouped, employing borders as mere suggestions, crossing a hastily constructed bridge near Oobaale and strategically positioning themselves. It’s a dynamic chess game where each town and outskirt becomes a board, and the consequences of a missed move are steep.
Anxiety quietly echoes through the Mogadishu suburb of Elasha Biyaha, where sightings of Al-Shabaab fighters have unsettled residents. Such fear is not unwarranted. Yet, focusing solely on fear blinds us to the broader narrative. Will they smuggle more VBIEDs into Mogadishu? Maruf, in a cautionary note, asserted on X, “Highly likely. But a conventional battle for the capital? Highly unlikely.”
Operations reached a chilling high point on March 18, when a powerful explosion targeted President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s convoy. This act of aggression, followed by a near-seamless linking of Al-Shabaab factions in Guulane, marks their most consolidated effort in central Somalia in recent history.
Enter Caleb Weiss—a voice on the front lines who identifies recent developments in Middle Shabelle as a red flag. These movements could have far-reaching implications for Mogadishu’s future security.
The United States, recognizing the mounting threat, has intensified its air campaign under President Donald Trump. A strategic shift has brought more latitude to field commanders, capable of acting swiftly on real-time intelligence, marking a notable change in engagement rules. By mid-March, AFRICOM had launched airstrikes targeting Al-Shabaab fighters in Shabelle, and by early April, focused on Islamic State elements seeking refuge amidst the rugged Al Miskaad Mountains of Northeastern State.
Türkiye’s involvement represents a robust pillar of support; deeply committed to Somalia, Türkiye has stepped forward following the March assassination attempt. President Mohamud’s visit to Ankara underscored the need for bolsterment, with Türkiye pledging additional military resources, intelligence sharing, and material support. Up to 5,000 personnel from SADAT, closely affiliated with President Erdoğan, are set to reinforce efforts. As Camp TURKSOM pivots from training to a more active military role, such measures signal a recalibrated commitment to Somalia’s security.
Against this backdrop of international cooperation and support, Somalia’s security framework remains fragile. The new peacekeeping mission under the African Union, AUSSOM, intended to replace AMISOM, finds itself already hobbled by funding shortfalls and disagreements among member states. Political discord is a distraction at a time when unity is crucial; Burundi’s withdrawal over deployment issues is but one more obstacle.
Internal fractures are troubling. Federally, tension simmers between Somalia’s central governance and its regional states like Jubaland. This mistrust leads to armed confrontations, hindering efforts against Al-Shabaab. External pressures aren’t all; the internal discord could unravel any progress in a heartbeat.
The government’s reliance on clan militias, such as the once-lauded Ma’awisley, is crumbling under tension. Unpaid wages sow resentment, eroding reliability in counterterrorism operations. Conversely, Al-Shabaab, despite UN sanctions, continues its war economy. Sources of revenue proliferate via forced taxation, zakat collection, and exploitation of illicit trades, sustaining their insurgency with strategic financial endurance.
The complex web extends further. Alleged ties with Yemen’s Houthi rebels raise alarms, hinting at weapon exchanges which bolster Al-Shabaab’s ranks. The flow of arms, immortalized in militant propaganda, expose weaknesses in international oversight.
The Soufan Center’s analysis is sobering: the stability of Mogadishu and Somalia gains hold on the edge of a precipice. The need for cohesive, sustained international support couldn’t be clearer. Airstrikes and foreign troops may provide momentary respite, but the profound structural weaknesses within Somalia’s governance threaten to undo all if left unaddressed. As the report poignantly states, “Somalia’s security environment remains deeply unstable. If structural weaknesses are not addressed, groups like Al-Shabaab will continue to exploit governance vacuums and push closer to the capital.”
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International–Monitoring.
