Recent findings have highlighted that human-induced climate change has made the recent heatwaves across Europe up to 4°C hotter in many cities. This alarming increase has pushed temperatures into perilous levels, endangering thousands of vulnerable individuals.
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A rapid study conducted by over a dozen researchers from five European institutions concludes that the impact of global warming likely resulted in a significant rise in heat-related fatalities compared to what we would have seen otherwise. As the temperatures soared between late June and early July—reaching well above 40 degrees Celsius in parts of Europe—the first heatwave of the summer shattered previous records and triggered urgent health warnings.
The European Union’s climate monitoring service, Copernicus, has reported that June was the hottest on record in Western Europe. During this extreme weather, numerous schools and tourist destinations were forced to close their doors as the mercury climbed.
By analyzing historical weather data, researchers determined that the heatwave “would have been 2-4°C cooler” without the influence of climate change—this was the case for all but one of the 12 cities included in their study. The marked increase in temperatures escalated risks for these urban areas, collectively home to over 30 million people, including major capitals such as Paris, London, and Madrid.
As Ben Clarke, a researcher from Imperial College London, noted, “What that does is it brings certain groups of people into more dangerous territory.” He added, “For some people, it’s still warm, fine weather. But for a substantial part of the population, it’s become significantly more dangerous.”
‘Life and Death’
This groundbreaking study also sought for the first time to quantify the death toll resulting from the heatwave in the 12 cities and how many of these could be attributed to climate change. Applying peer-reviewed scientific methods, the researchers estimated that the heatwave likely caused around 2,300 deaths between June 23 and July 2 across the observed cities. Strikingly, approximately 1,500—about two-thirds of these fatalities—would likely not have occurred if it weren’t for climate change’s contribution to these extreme temperatures.
The authors, representing research institutions from the UK, Netherlands, Denmark, and Switzerland, emphasized that this estimate provides just a snapshot of the broader impact of the heatwave, as no official death count has yet been released.
Heatwaves are particularly life-threatening for vulnerable groups, including the elderly, those with preexisting health conditions, young children, outdoor workers, and anyone exposed to high temperatures for extended periods without respite. The dangers are exacerbated in urban environments, where paved surfaces and buildings retain and radiate heat, causing city areas to become significantly hotter than their rural counterparts.
According to Copernicus, large swathes of southern Europe experienced what are known as “tropical nights” during the heatwave, where nighttime temperatures are high enough to prevent the body from recovering. Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a lecturer at Imperial College London, stated, “An increase in heatwave temperature of just two to four degrees can mean the difference between life and death for thousands of people.” He further remarked, “This is why heatwaves are known as silent killers. Most heat-related deaths occur in homes and hospitals, away from public scrutiny, and often go unreported.”
While authorities anticipate that it may take weeks to arrive at a more accurate figure for the recent heatwave’s death toll, it’s essential to remember that prior instances of extreme heat have claimed tens of thousands of lives in Europe during earlier summers.
