Somalia’s Paradox: A Land Rich in Resources Yet Struggling to Thrive
Somalia, with its wealth of untapped oil and vast mineral resources, fertile river valleys, and the honor of having mainland Africa’s longest coastline, was once thought destined to become a regional powerhouse. Such potential should have translated into prosperity and influence. Instead, for nearly forty years, Somalia has found itself entangled in a relentless storm of conflict, terrorism, and political stalemate. It’s as if the leaders themselves, those chosen to steer the nation towards recovery, have instead anchored it in stagnation. It all begs the question: Will Somalia ever emerge from the shadows?
The winds of change seem to be growing colder. Development aid from the United States is dwindling, counterterrorism support is waning, and European donors appear weary of Somalia’s unending woes. This mounting isolation has inadvertently lent strength to al-Shabaab, the militant group that continues to pose a formidable threat. Curiously, not many seem attuned to the group’s escalating internal fissures. Clan rivalries within al-Shabaab hint at a power struggle poised to surface violently. Are these whispers of discord a foreshadowing of a new chapter for Somalia?
In an audacious move, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud recently extended an olive branch, inviting opposition figures, federal state leaders, and community heads to collectively confront terrorism. “I am extending an invitation to a consultation meeting for the politicians and the leaders of the community to come together to join our arms in fighting against the terrorists,” he announced, evoking cautious optimism among opposition ranks. Yet, the true battle awaits beyond these dialogues—in the midst of al-Shabaab’s uncertainties, where shadows hold stories untold.
“There are two governments in Somalia: The Federal Government and the al-Shabaab Government and we head one of them,”
These were the poignant yet humorous words spoken by Boqor Osman Aw Mohamud, known as Boqor Buurmadow, an influential traditional figure from North Western State of Somalia. This candid remark, delivered at a gathering in Mogadishu, reflects the haunting duality of Somalia’s political landscape.
Deep within al-Shabaab lies a brewing storm—a power struggle between the Dir and Hawiye clans that threatens to fracture its leadership. Historically shielded by shadowy ethnic Dir figures, the group now reveals tensions as ethnic Hawiye leaders—Ali Dhere, Mahad Karate, and Yusuf Kabakudukade—vie for prominence.
Al-Shabaab’s aspiration to transition from militancy to governance, buoyed by the Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan, has not consolidated its position but rather exposed weaknesses. This ideological karma highlights internal contradictions, unveiling fractures too long hidden.
If strategic peace talks, encouraged by nations like Norway, Qatar, Turkey, and the U.S., were to manifest, a pressing question looms: who will stand as al-Shabaab’s spokesman? Could the visibly influential Hawiye faction emerge as negotiators, leaving the Dir leadership in obscurity? Sensing the shift, al-Shabaab’s chief seeks to solidify his authority, promoting trusted clan members like former academic Nageye Ali Khalif and poet Abdiwahid Gama’did as the refreshed face of the group.
This maneuver has sent a clear message to Hawiye elites within al-Shabaab: adapt or face marginalization. Remembering grim past purges like the 2013 assassination of group founders Ibrahim Afghani and Moalim Burhan—vivid reminders of the risks of complacency—they recoil from their potential erasure.
In a twist, Hawiye leaders have altered their recruitment tactics, sourcing support from dominant sub-clans to bolster loyalty and reassert relevance, breaking from the tradition of enlisting fighters from politically marginalized communities such as the Jareerweyne and Rahanweyn.
Though diplomatic overtures to al-Shabaab have been whispered about for years, efforts to lay the foundation for dialogue are becoming more transparent. Norway, alongside Turkey, Qatar, and the U.S., have invested in this subtle engagement, setting a stage where potential talks are whispered rather than heralded.
Al-Shabaab’s capacity for destruction, however, remains unrivaled in the region. A grim testament came in October 2017 when the group orchestrated one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in African history, killing over 1,000 in Mogadishu. This act etched Somalia’s anguish onto the global psyche, second only to the tragedies of 9/11.
Where does this leave Somalia? On a knife’s edge—teetering between transformative progress and chaos. Should the leadership remain distracted by constitutional debates and fleeting gains, yet another crucial moment may dissolve into missed opportunities. Al-Shabaab’s internal divisions could either be a catalyst for a decisive offensive or the genesis for more extreme factions. And so, one must ask: will chaos breed opportunity, or simply metamorphose into a more dangerous adversary?
Ultimately, it won’t be the insurgent strongholds’ shadows that mold Somalia’s destiny, but the courageous decisions of those wielding legitimate power. Can they navigate this turbulent chapter for better, for worse, for the promise of peace?
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International – Monitoring.
