Sudan’s Complex Civil War Dynamics
As Sudan’s civil conflict stretches into its third year, it has evolved into a multifaceted proxy war. This battle is driven not just by local factions but by international interests vying for the nation’s rich resources.
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- The conflict involves the regular Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
- Key external players include Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Türkiye, and the UAE.
- Resources such as gold, farmland, and strategic coastlines are central to international interest.
Shifting Battle Lines and Global Interests
The fight for control shifted significantly after the RSF’s capture of el-Fasher, marking a milestone in the war. This has deepened the humanitarian crisis, affecting millions.
- Nearly 12 million people have been displaced, with famine risks escalating.
- External powers support different factions, escalating the proxy war’s intensity.
Resource Struggles: Land and Ports
Sudan’s fertile lands and strategic Red Sea ports have become highly contested, attracting international bids for dominance. These resources hold significant economic and strategic value.
- Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, have invested heavily in Sudan’s agriculture.
- The Red Sea ports are vital as they facilitate a major portion of global trade.
- Countries like Russia and Türkiye have sought strategic footholds along Sudan’s coast.
The Emerging Red Sea Geopolitical Arena
Sudan’s coastline has become a critical area of interest, with multiple countries seeking control over maritime routes crucial for international trade.
- Port concessions and naval access are key objectives for foreign powers.
- Naval presence in the Red Sea offers control over a vital trade corridor.
UAE’s Involvement and Accusations
The UAE’s role in the conflict has been both influential and contentious, with allegations of support for the RSF. This has strained diplomatic relations between the UAE and Sudan.
- Khartoum accuses the UAE of supplying arms to the RSF, which the UAE denies.
- Research indicates a high volume of UAE cargo flights landing in Chad and Libya.
- Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar is identified as a central figure in facilitating military supplies to the RSF.
The Gold Standard: Economic Interests
Gold has become a primary economic resource for Sudan. Control over gold mining and trade routes is a significant aspect of the conflict.
- Sudan produced over 80 tons of gold annually before the outbreak of war.
- Smuggling networks tied to both factions have emerged as dominant players in the gold sector.
- Dubai is identified as a central hub in the global flow of Sudanese gold.
Modern Warfare: Drones and Mercenaries
The conflict’s escalation has seen the introduction of advanced military technologies and international fighters, further complicating the war’s dynamics.
- Iran and Türkiye have supplied drones to Sudan’s army.
- Accusations of UAE supplying drones to the RSF persist, though denied by Abu Dhabi.
- Mercenaries from various regions have joined the RSF, adding layers to the internationalized conflict.
Conclusion
Sudan’s civil war is not merely a regional conflict but a battleground for global powers. With so many interests at stake, finding a resolution is increasingly complex.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
