Study finds global fossil fuel emissions set to reach record high

Overview: Global emissions climb as 1.5C window narrows

The latest Global Carbon Budget warns that carbon dioxide from fossil fuels is poised to reach a fresh peak in 2025, and that the remaining CO2 allowance to keep warming below 1.5C is vanishing fast. Scientists say current levels of emissions make meeting the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious goal effectively out of reach without unprecedented rapid action.

• Fossil CO2 emissions are projected to be about 1.1% higher in 2025 than in 2024, despite rapid deployment of renewable energy.
• The remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5C is estimated at roughly 170 billion tonnes of CO2—about four years of emissions at today’s rate.
• The analysis appears in the journal Earth System Science Data and is led by Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter.

What the numbers mean for the 1.5C target

This section explains the carbon-budget framing scientists use to relate emissions pathways to temperature goals and why the new tally intensifies the urgency of deep cuts.

• A carbon budget translates allowable cumulative emissions into probable temperature outcomes; a small remaining budget implies little margin for further fossil-fuel use.
• At current emission rates, the budget for 1.5C would be exhausted in roughly four years, a timeframe researchers describe as making the target essentially impossible without dramatic intervention.
• Even with rapid renewables growth, rising energy demand and continued fossil fuel use are eroding available pathways consistent with Paris ambitions.

COP30 backdrop: diplomacy in the Amazon

The report was released as delegates gather for COP30 in Belém, Brazil, spotlighting a disconnect between political negotiations and global emissions trends. The conference is being held without the participation of one of the world’s largest emitters, complicating efforts to secure stronger collective action.

• Scientists and delegates brought the Global Carbon Budget findings to the climate talks in the rainforest city of Belém to underscore the narrowing window for meaningful temperature control.
• The United States did not attend COP30, a conspicuous absence given its position as the world’s second-largest historic emitter.
• Experts at the conference warned that national commitments and current policies remain far short of pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C.

Regional trends: mixed signals from major emitters

Global totals mask divergent trajectories across countries. The report highlights flat or falling emissions in some places, increases in others, and the influence of fuel switching, weather and policy on year-to-year changes.

• China’s fossil emissions were largely flat in the reported period, with continued high coal use but signs that renewables may be taking a larger share of energy supply.
• The United States saw a 7.5% rise in coal emissions as higher natural gas prices prompted a shift back toward coal in power generation; overall US and EU emissions rose this year, reversing recent declines.
• India experienced a smaller increase in CO2 than in prior years, helped by a strong renewables rollout and an early monsoon that reduced demand pressures.

Land use, forests and the temporary relief

Land-use emissions—driven by deforestation and fires—can swing global totals substantially. The report attributes some of the modest reduction in net land emissions to improved conditions in South America following El Niño’s decline.

• Humanity’s total CO2 emissions, when land-use changes are included, are projected around 42.2 billion tonnes for the year—slightly below the previous year but uncertain within a wide range.
• A reduction in deforestation and fewer large fires in parts of South America, tied in part to the end of the very dry 2023–24 El Niño conditions, helped lower net land-use emissions.
• Long-term control of land emissions depends on sustained forest protection and restoration, as well as changes in agricultural and land management policies worldwide.

Implications and the scale of the challenge

Scientists stress that incremental improvements will not be enough: collective, rapid, and large-scale reductions across sectors are required to alter the trajectory implied by the carbon budget. The report offers a stark picture of how quickly allowable emissions are being consumed.

• While 35 countries have managed to grow their economies while cutting emissions—double the number a decade ago—global progress remains inadequate to meet the most ambitious climate goal.
• Experts quoted in the study say the balance of evidence points to a narrow and rapidly closing set of options if 1.5C is to remain feasible, making political will and immediate policy shifts critical.
• The interplay of energy prices, national policy choices, extreme weather and land-use dynamics will continue to shape annual emissions and the durability of any apparent progress.

The Global Carbon Budget report adds scientific weight to warnings that current national plans and recent technological gains, while important, are not yet sufficient to prevent dangerous levels of warming without much faster and deeper cuts in fossil fuels and improved stewardship of land and forests.

By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.