Egypt’s move toward Somalia signals a new chapter in Horn of Africa security
CAIRO — On the sunlit occasion of the Grand Egyptian Museum’s inauguration, a quieter but consequential conversation was taking place behind the velvet ropes: Egypt’s foreign minister and the head of the African Union quietly mapped out the contours of a possible Egyptian troop contribution to the AU’s mission in Somalia.
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The meeting between Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and AU Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, held on the sidelines of the museum opening, focused on coordination and planning for what the AU referred to as the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). No numbers or timetables were released. But the optics mattered: as Egypt celebrated a monumental cultural project that looks back millennia, it was also staking out a more forward-leaning security role in a turbulent neighborhood.
Why Egypt now?
At first glance, Somalia and Cairo may seem separated by geography and priorities. But the ties run deeper — through geopolitics, trade routes and shared security threats. Egypt’s interest in Somalia is not purely altruistic. The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are increasingly crowded and contested waterways. Piracy has receded from its 2010s peak, yet the region remains vulnerable to disruptive non-state actors. For Cairo, securing stable sea lanes matters for trade and for national security.
And there is the broader strategic calculus. Over the past decade, external powers from Turkey to the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and, more recently, China and Russia, have expanded their footprint in the Horn. Egypt’s stepped-up engagement can be read as an attempt to reassert regional influence at a time when the balance of partnerships is shifting.
History and context: an uneasy stabilization effort
Somalia has been the focus of African and international peacekeeping for more than a decade. The AU mission has borne the brunt of confronting al-Shabab and creating space for Somali institutions to function. The mission’s name and shape have evolved — the long-running AMISOM operation gave way to transition plans under new AU mandates — but the core challenge remains: stabilizing a country where large swaths remain outside government control and where urban and rural insurgency tactics persist.
Sharing the burden of such a gruelling mission has always been politically and financially fraught. Contributing countries face casualties, logistical headaches and long-term commitments that can outlast political attention in capitals. What Egypt decides to commit — whether a specialist engineering contingent, trainers, air assets or ground troops — will indicate not only Cairo’s resolve but also how the AU and its partners plan to shoulder the next phase of Somalia’s fragile recovery.
What this means for the AU and Somalia
The AU has been pushing member states to step forward as international partners recalibrate their roles. European and U.S. support to Somalia has often focused on development, counterterrorism assistance and training. But boots on the ground, when they are needed, are still provided mainly by African states. Egypt’s potential deployment would underscore an emerging trend: North African capitals becoming more operationally involved in subregional security.
For Mogadishu, any additional international backing could buy breathing room for Somali forces to consolidate gains and extend state presence. Yet the core question is not only how many troops arrive, but whether their mandate, rules of engagement and logistics are aligned with a coherent political strategy that can deliver governance, local reconciliation and economic recovery — the long-term remedies that blunt the appeal of militant groups.
Regional ripple effects
Egypt’s engagement could recalibrate relationships across the Horn. Addis Ababa, Djibouti, Nairobi and Kampala have all had their own security and diplomatic investments in Somalia. Egypt’s arrival — if it is substantial — will require careful diplomatic choreography: how do its goals overlap with, or diverge from, those of Ethiopia or Kenya? Will Cairo coordinate closely with bilateral partners such as Turkey, the United Arab Emirates or Western states, or pursue a more independent track under AU auspices?
There is also a domestic angle. The Egyptian government, which has invested heavily in national projects like the Grand Egyptian Museum as symbols of national pride and continuity, can use a regional security role to burnish credentials as a responsible continental actor. But that step involves potential costs — casualties, stretched logistics and political scrutiny at home if a mission drags on.
Beyond the parade of pomp: culture, power and expectations
The juxtaposition of Egypt’s cultural diplomacy — embodied by the new museum, a vast showcase of pharaonic treasures designed to attract tourists and political attention — and its movement into the security sphere is telling. Soft power and hard power are often two sides of the same foreign policy coin. As Egypt invites the world to view its past glories, it is also asserting itself as a present-day guarantor of regional order.
But practical challenges remain. The AU mission in Somalia has long been underfunded and racked by uneven troop rotations and sometimes unclear strategic objectives. Will a new contributor bring fresh resources and clarity, or will it simply add another contingent to an overstretched coalition? More broadly, can African-led security efforts be matched by sustained political and economic strategies that tackle the root causes of instability?
These are the questions that will shape the next chapter. The meeting at the Grand Egyptian Museum was a signal — not a contract. It raised expectations that the AU can marshal continental resources to support Somalia’s transition. Whether those expectations will translate into transformative action will depend on tough decisions, funding, and a willingness among member states to accept both the short-term risks and the long-term responsibilities of regional security.
As Egypt flung open the doors of a museum meant to link the Nile’s ancient civilizations with the modern world, the quieter boardroom negotiations outside suggested a different kind of heritage: a legacy of regional leadership that will be tested not by artifacts, but by how effectively it helps to rebuild lives and institutions across its Red Sea frontier.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
